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Nice point. But then, are we basing when to sell your bitcoin on over accumulation or on long-term basis? What you might see as over accumulation may not mean that for someone else. However, there's no true threshold as to when a bitcoin accumulation is termed over accumulation".
You can do what you want, and you can think about your goals in bitcoin how you want.
I consider bitcoin to be a lifetime investment, so once you reach overaccumulation status, then you would start to have the option to sell within the overaccumulated amount, and so I do not consider bitcoin to be an asset in which you might spend 4-10 years or more accumulating it and then you sell large portions of it or even all of it.
Surely there can be variations in regards to the thinking about what is overaccumualtion status and how to manage such overaccumualtion status, once reached.
Figuring out how to manage overaccumulation status is not a bad problem to have, and surely, guys are going to vary in regards to how they believe is a good way to manage overaccumualtion status. I think that sustainable withdrawal is a good way to manage overaccumulation (unless you have age and/or health considerations that might cause you to need to withdraw bitcoin in non-sustainable ways), and you surely do not need to agree.
If that be the case I think it would be more proper to advocate more about long-term hodling than over accumulation.
They go together, and surely if a guy is still accumulating bitcoin until he reaches overaccumulation status, there could also be a period in between accumulating and starting to withdraw where he is merely just maintaining his holdings, whether he is just holding and neither buying nor selling or maybe he is buying on dips and selling on the way up.. There can be a variety of ways to manage a guys holdings once he is no longer accumulating bitcoin, yet surely I cannot see any reason to sell any bitcoin unless the guy is at overaccumulation status, and he would ONLY sell from the overaccumulated portion. I also am not sure why a guy would not continue to buy bitcoin in the event that he has not yet reached overaccumulation status. I personally don't see a whole hell of a lot of reason to just sit idle and to hold, but sure, I can see that others may well differ in their opinions and they are too worried about screwing things up so they just hold in a kind of status that they are no longer buying and they are not selling either.
A low income earner would never reach such level of 25.166 bitcoin or 17.166 bitcoin probably until death. So what is your yardstick for measuring over accumulation??
I used 17.166 BTC as an amount of BTC that would be needed right now if a guy were to want to be able to sustainably withdraw at a pace of $80k per year.
Of course, there are guys who do not want or need that level of income, and likely in 3-4 years, the amount of BTC needed for an $80k per year income (even accounting for inflation/fiat debasement) will likely be around half the amount that is needed today.. so that would be 8.583 BTC in 3-4 years.
You have to figure out your level of income, and also your level of income in the future may well relate to your level of income in the present, and so in that regard, I have shown several examples in which guys might have had invested into bitcoin around 2 cycles at a rate of 15% per year of their salary, and in two cycles they would have had been able to double their income from the amount of BTC that that they had accumulated and then entering into sustainable withdrawal.
Yes, you may or may not be able to invest 15% per year, and then also bitcoin may well not perform as well as it had done historically, so you may well need more than 2 cycles in order to achieve a similar goal based on your own income and what you are able to invest into bitcoin based on your discretionary income. For example, you cannot invest 15% of your income into bitcoin if your discretionary income is less than 15% of your income, so there might either be ways that you need to increase your discretionary income by increasing your income and/or cutting your expenses or maybe you have to take longer to get to your goals. and surely bitcoin's future performance is not guaranteed, either.
Also, a high income earner or entrepreneur could reach that "Your over accumulation" threshold in less than one year, does that qualify him to sell a part??
Guys can do what they like, yet from my perspective, I am not considering it a good idea to trade bitcoin, and you are talking about trading.
I also talk about the reason for overaccumulation is in order to get into
some kind of a sustainable withdrawal system, which seems to ONLY make sense with the passage of time, including being in bitcoin for at least 4 years, but yeah, there could be some ways in which guys could front load their bitcoin investment, yet it still seems like trading if they are merely selling based on their holdings being in profits.. but yeah, whatever they can do what they like, and trading is not really what I am talking about in terms of a good way to try to valuate your bitcoin holdings and also to figure out some price based and/or time based sustainable withdrawal techniques.
In some of my other posts, I had mentioned that my conception of how to employ price-based sustainable withdrawal could kick in faster than time-based sustainable withdrawal since price based sustainable withdrawal is based more on the BTC spot price rather than time-based sustainable withdrawal having 200-WMA valuations contained therein. Surely guys could employ systems that differ from my own ways of thinking about matters.
I sometimes get fanatic about slow and steady approach, DCA, because it works on both ends of long-term holding and possible over accumulation. A newbie could set his threshold at 1bitcoin in 5 years and spread through the intervals of weekly DCA. Someone else would be excited to achieve 1 bitcoin in 10 years. All what matters is knowing that you are accumulating bitcoin and that you are not selling off in panic and that you are also living up to your responsibilities. This stage of over accumulation may not really sit well among folks of low income earners.
You might not know what overaccumulation is until you start to get close to it or that you have reached it, and I am not even proclaiming any kind of monopoly in terms of how it might be assessed/calculated.
Yet, at the same time, I consider overaccumulation to be quite a powerful concept in bitcoin, since many other assests will ONLY allow you to withdraw around 4% per year, so in order to achieve an ability to engage in sustainable withdrawal, your investment portfolio needs to be valuated at about 25x your annual income. Yet, personally I believe that bitcoin allows a person to withdraw at 10% per year as long as he is valuating based on the 200-WMA, which means that he ONLY has to reach 10x his targeted annual income as long as he is valuating his bitcoin holdings based on the 200-WMA.
Surely overaccumulating provides a cushion and should give some piece of mind that the person is not prematurely selling too much too soon and that he is maintaining his bitcoin value to at least be 10x higher than his annual income based on the 200-WMA valuation of the bitcoin. I personally think that if guys are spending their bitcoin and not paying attention to their overaccumulation status, then they run risks of spending too much bitcoin too soon, which to me does not seem like a good place to be either financially or psychologically. But, yeah, again, guys can do what they want and they can end up making mistakes by spending too much of their bitcoin too soon, and presuming that they are richer than they are, and that is their choice in regards to how to think about and/or manage their bitcoin holdings.
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@ gost ms i think you're the one who is confusing the whole thing here, because i just went through silentcursor comment he didn't said that is good to time the market rather what he said is that (Timing the market is a strategy that even preference traders struggles with and it is exactly why it is dangerous for investors to practice it) which is true because if you're this set of investors that always like Timing the market there are some certain opportunity you will be missing, an investor is not supposed to engage him or herself into Timing the market. Just as silentcursor said that Timing the market is mostly used by traders since trading has to do with short time profit, and timing the market is not always that easy for them because there's always a pressure when doing this, Which is why i prefer investing all my money into bitcoin because if you're investing in bitcoin you won't undergo this stress.
Reminds me of the expression: "time in the market is preferred to timing the market," which justifies why so many of us suggest to get started buying BTC as soon as you can (at any price) and then just keep buying bitcoin as aggressively as you can without overdoing it, which likely will take many folks 4-10 years or longer to get their bitcoin holdings to a point that is enough or more than enough which would then justify that they no longer need to worry about accumulating bitcoin.
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Bitcoin has only limited supply of 21 million with only 10% of it remaining to mine so there is no such thing as over accumulation for me. We should accumulate bitcoin as much as we can. Doing DCA strategy using our spare amount of money after paying the essential expenses is the best approach to increase our holdings without risking our financial security. DCA also is less stressful as you don't need to time the market waiting for the bottom to buy. We're still at the early stage of bitcoin's mass global adoption. There's still plenty of room to grow. In 5 or 10 years, once more countries become interested in bitcoin, it's still possible for its price to increase double, triple, or maybe even higher. Our aim for now while accumulating is to be patient and believe in bitcoin's long-term potential.
If something is scarce (or rare), then you don't need a lot of it in order for it to be an asymmetric bet to the upside. Of course, bitcoin is currently divisible by 100 million, so each bitcoin has 100 million satoshis, so you may still feel that you have a lot of satoshis, even if you have less than a whole bitcoin.
Logically it does not make sense to me that some folks might have had reached a status of overaccumulation of their bitcoin, since there is likely some value to spend your bitcoin rather than to die with them, but hey, whatever, you can think about the matter however you like in terms of your thinking that overaccumulation is not possible to achieve with bitcoin merely because it is amongst the most (if not the most) scarce of assets known to man.
Have you being considering on buying bitcoin, then take into consideration these few advise.
- Have a designated fund for your investment and ensure that you don't rush to invest, instead find a suitable entry point and buy the dip, additional, you can use the DCA strategy if you think its more convenient for you to buy steadily and not at once
If you are a low coiner or a no coiner, it is better to get started right away. So yeah, that could be considered a rush to get started right away.
It is likely that an overwhelming majority of folks are low coiners, especially if they are still in their first full cycle of accumulating bitcoin.
You, Doan9269, are barely reaching your first whole cycle of being registered on the form, and perhaps you were able to reach overaccumulation status, if you had frontloaded your bitcoin investment. Otherswise, I doubt it. You likely are still needing to accumulate bitcoin, so your inclination to describe trading tactics is likely not only appropriate for most beginners, it may also not be very applicable to your own personal financial situation, either. Of course, I cannot know your particulars, so it could have had been possible that you were able to significantly front load your bitcoin investment and to get yourself to a status of overaccumulation. Perhaps? perhaps?
- Also, consider that you have made the right decision in going for bitcoin and choosing of a non custodial wallet for your holding, avoid fear of unnecessary demand, fear of missing out , because they can push you into making a hasty decision on selling when it is not yet time to do so, therefore its important we develop a more thicker skin as investors as the market reacts on many things happening around.
One way to avoid sensations of fear of missing out (FOMO) is to ongoingly buy bitcoin... any guys who are insufficiently/inadequately preparing for up run the risk of putting themselves into a situation of experiencing FOMO.