Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
As of today, I consider 17.166 BTC to be the threshold starting point today for earning an annual income of $80k in perpetuity, yet it may well take a bit of decently good BTC portfolio management to execute such a sustainable withdrawal without screwing it up... so then yeah, younger people might not need very much income until they have to support themselves, so it seems a bit unrealistic to be considering those who are less than 18 years old as retiring (and/or supporting themselves) prior to age of majority 18 years or whatever that might be depending on location/jurisdiction.
I would need 30-35 btc as would like 175k a year from now til the endnow we all know I add corn but not at the pace to get to 35 btc in a year or 2.
My better chance is stack as best I can and hoping for 1 btc to = 500 k in under 5 years.
I am positioned to hold corn and stack for years to come and should not need to sell any until it reaches much higher than it is.
If bitcoin is supplementing your other income, then I am not sure why you feel that you need so much?.. ... but o.k. whatever, I will try to go along with you just for the sake of matters.
If you are 68, but you are planning to live until you are 93, that is 25 years, so surely we would have to plan that you are attempting to be perpetual with your withdrawal rate. or to make it sustainable until you are trying to deplete it... so yeah, right at this moment, 35 BTC currently has 200-WMA valuation of $1.633 million and a spot price valuation of $3.317 million, which would get you right around $163k per year as a sustainable withdrawal rate... and yeah, of course, there would be tax consequences in regards to withdrawing that much each year which would be nearly $41k per quarter or $13,667 per month.
I have a hard time coming up with any solution, since I go by the 200-WMA to figure out what is a sustainable withdrawal rate, yet you may well be able to sustain at a higher rate if you are not planning the amount to be sustainable (or perpetual), but even with that I would not feel comfortable projecting out 25 years to deplete the stash, but it is kind of funny since even a spot price cashing out of 35 BTC currently would get you $133k per year for 25 years, yet we likely realize that the $133k per year is not going to hold its value, except if you were to keep it in bitcoin and employ the sustainable withdrawal than that $163k per year would be sustainable in perpetuity and it may even increase over the years.
Surely, you have the problem of not being even close to 35 BTC, and yeah, maybe you have 1/3 of that or 1/2 of that, so it is hard to come up with any solution if you are proclaiming to need so much.. which I am also having difficulties believing that you would actually need that much since you already had described previously a couple of sources of income that you already have, so you supposedly need more than twice the current default entry level fuck you status salary of $80k per year?
you are just high maintenance. .. or high maintenance wannabe...
Oh by the way, if you were to already be at 17.15 BTC, then after about 3 or 4 years, without doing anything else except maintaining that amount of BTC, it is quite likely that the withdrawal rate of that 17.15 quantity of bitcoin will double in its dollar value.. which means that in 3-4 years, 17.15 BTC will be equal to $160k annual withdrawal in today's dollars... so there can surely be solutions for any guys who are planning in advance rather than proclaiming to need more BTC right now than what they currently have right now.
Even though bitcoin is a great investment, there still requires some planning in advance or at least accumulating in advance and erroring on the side of accumulating and holding of bitcoin, and not fucking around with trying to increase your stash by trying to trade it.
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I wanted to use your 17.166 BTC number in my reply to Leahized, but couldn't remember it, and your link (in my bookmarks) defaults to 21 BTC (which is pretty close, actually).I find the 10 BTC estimate above to be over-optimistic, even for someone in his 40s, let alone a 5 y.o., in that there may be future situations playing out, that could affect the prospective growth of Bitcoin, so it's better to be on the conservative side when it comes to life choices like retirement, quitting one's job, etc., and there are other important things to also consider, like medical insurance. Ideally, for me, the best scenario would be to retire at the earliest possible time (even on a reduced pension, due to an early exit), and then start spending your Bitcoin slowly and as needed, to sustain the lifestyle you want (which heavily depends on your wants & needs, LHB and all). In this way, you are secure (as much as a state can provide security) in terms of coverage of basic life needs and medical expenses, and Bitcoin adds the extra element of doing what you really want and dream of. So, to sum up, I'd say about 20 BTC (or 17.166 BTC in your calculation) is a better estimate to achieve this, at least for someone living in the USA or similar western country. Other countries may require much less than this amount, of course, so each one of us should do a personalized estimation, using your useful tool in the link above.
In recent times, I am continuously adjusting the quantity of BTC to be at the threshold quantity of BTC needed for a $80k per year sustainable income, and yeah surely at some point I will have to adjust the annual income or the withdrawal rate, and for sure, I agree with you that concerns about medical insurance coverage might also increase the amount to more than $80k, and also if this is the ONLY income for a single person versus a couple versus a family 2 adults and 2 kids, then surely the amounts might need to be adjusted upwards for each of those categories, and if I am thinking entry level, then I am not adding the supporting of extra persons as an automatic for the entry-level considerations... and yeah, that might be a bit too conservative, yet I did double the amount in 2020 from $40k per year to $80k per year, so I thought that my adjustment upwards was sufficiently enough, even though maybe in a couple years I might need to adjust up to $100k or even to $120k as the default entry level fuck you status income... but I think that it is a bit too insensitive to the variety of salaries around the world to be considering that $80k is not a sufficient entry-level starting point.
By the way, 20 BTC currently gives you a sustainable and perpetual annual income of $93.3k, which perhaps if we assume around a 5% inflation/dollar debasement rate, then perhaps this year would be $93.3k, and then next year would be $98k, and then the following year would be $102.86k and then the following year would be $108k etc etc etc. I think that bitcoin can accommodate those increases in the cost of living... though we still have to make sure that we are not engaging in other errors, which I have suggest that withdrawal rates have to be reduced if the BTC spot price is less than 25% above the 200-WMA, and I also suggest that advance withdrawals can be made based on BTC prices that are multitudes above the 200-WMA.. and so currently the 200-WMA is $46,650 and the BTC price is right around 103% higher than the 200-WMA, which discretionarily allows for the withdrawal of 5 months in advance..
And, so another point, would be that any of us who might have a certain target withdrawal rate, it does surely help that we have more BTC than the mere target income level BTC amount, since from my position it is better to have a cushion and to be withdrawing from the overaccumulated portion of our BTC so that we never go below the threshold level of BTC, and so if we have worked out our formulas and our cushions properly, we should end up withdrawing at a rate that almost guarantees that our bitcoin is growing in dollar values at a faster rate than we are withdrawing, even accounting for the inevitable debasement of the dollar and/or inflation..
I must say that the older I get, the more eager I feel about pulling the fuck-you lever, even disregarding the medical insurance issue (which, paradoxically, should be more important as one gets older).
I understand that several years ago you mentioned medical insurance as an obstacle, and surely you must be getting closer to being able to pull such fuck you lever. Surely a few years ago we were talking about 60 or more BTC for threshold entry-level fuck you status (and sure we might have been wrong in the level of cushion that we expected to be necessary), and I surely have revised some of my own calculations in terms of my own thinking that sustainability comes from valuating our BTC stashes in terms of the 200-WMA rather than valuating in terms of spot price... but still given all of that, even if we might agree that $80k might be a reasonable default entry-level fuck you status, we might not be getting the same kind of information regarding how much extra we might consider that we might need in order to make sure that we have our medical sufficiently and/or adequately covered... whether that is an extra $10k per year, an extra $20k per year or is it some other amount that might be individually tailored.
I guess that, when we get older, we realize that life is more "finite" that we thought it was, and we begin to realize that there are only so many years that we will be able do the things we want to do, before old age starts having a debilitating effect on us. Bright examples like Phil and Jimbo show that there can still be many, many productive years ahead of us, but still, the feeling is there and getting stronger the more we age.
It is difficult to know activity levels, and surely many of us might already know that we have some limitations that have become greater through age, and we cannot get some of that energy and flexility and resilience back, so surely there is value in pulling the fuck you lever sooner rather than later, yet each of us still have to decide based on a variety of factors, and surely it may well make a difference how much we might be tied down to one location, and even if many of us have tried to keep more than one location going as bases, but there can be a lot of difficulties to have more than location as bases, even if we might try to travel too, to the extent that we might not have a geographically based job that we need to maintain..
tl;dr: 17.166 BTC and getting smaller. I'm happy with that!
Today it is 17.15 BTC.. so yeah, it is dropping every day... which is amazing, and one of the great things with that tool is that we can look back at any particular date to see how the numbers change with time. Two years ago today, the quantity was 30.731 BTC... that is about a 44.2% reduction in the quantity of BTC needed in two years.