Ok.  Flesh out a hypothetical then.  

Let's say that hypothetically, we have a relatively new guy to bitcoin, and perhaps he is in his early to mid 30s, and he has an income of around $30k, and over the 10 years he had been saving up, and so he has an investment portfolio of around $30k (mostly not bitcoin, like index funds), and so he already has an emergency fund.  In the last year, he had been fairly whimpy about bitcoin, and he was investing around $50 per week into bitcoin, and so over the past year, he invested right around $2,700 into bitcoin, and he built his bitcoin stash up to right around 0.03701 BTC (3.7 million satoshis).

This guys is thinking about becoming more serious about his bitcoin investing, and he wants to increase his DCA amount to $100 per week, and he also would like to take around $10k from his non-bitcoin investment portfolio and allocate that $10k into bitcoin. What would you suggest that such a guy do?  How should he go forward from here in accordance with what you are trying to proclaim as the better course forward?  Does this guy sufficiently fit in your category of a poor pleb?  Sure we could reduce the numbers, but we can still make the point with the numbers that I had listed.  Of course, we know that many poor folks have not built up a savings, yet the reason that I am describing a person with $10k available to invest into bitcoin, I am wanting you to say what the guy should do right now with such an amount..

He not only has $10k available, but he also has aw $100 per week amount that he is able to put into bitcoin, and surely his timeline for investing into bitcoin would be 4-10 years or long.. I would think that he would be in a good position after 4 years, yet with his current finances, he may well be able to reach some variation of fuck you status in 10 years.. which means that if he does not fuck things up, he may well be able to live off of his bitcoin investment, including potentially at a higher income rate in 10 years, and maybe even less than 10 years.  Another thing is that we maybe could project that we expect his income to go up between 3% to 5% each year, so that even after 10 years, his income may well double, so then his expected withdrawal rate would double so that he may well need around $60k per year in order to be able to sustainably replace his anticipated income in 10 years.  He also might prefer to increase his standard of living, yet that could be a bridge that he crosses or considers to cross when he gets closer to reaching his BTC accumulation goals 10-years or so down the road.


These are confusing discussions in regards to the idea of aggressiveness and the extent to which guys might choose to invest aggressively and then later to lessen the level of aggressiveness and then potentially start to cash out on his investment and/or continue to accumulate bitcoin even after having had reached target BTC accumulation levels.

I personally consider level of aggressiveness to go along with a sort of level of seriousness in regards to trying to accumulate bitcoin in a quicker way and perhaps striving to reach a BTC target accumulation level faster, and surely the target might be expressed in terms of how many bitcoin is needed, yet we are not even going to exactly know what 5 BTC might be worth 4-10 years or more down the road when we reach such target, so we likely would be aiming towards a certain quantity of sustainable income that would need to be generated based on the quantity of bitcoin that we had
accumulated, so if we are striving to keep our bitcoin rather than sell all of it, then we would likely be calculating whether we have enough or more than enough based on how much income we expect it to generate in a sustainable way.  

So, when we are trying to reach our target, we may well choose to be more aggressive in our bitcoin accumulation based on our wanting to reach our target sooner rather than later, so maybe we would like to reach our target in 8 years rather than 12 or 16 years, so we purposefully choose to be more aggressive in the amount that we are investing into bitcoin on a weekly basis... and so if we presume that our cashflow management is strong and our back up funds are sufficient, then we choose our level of aggressiveness in regards to how much disposable income that we have, so maybe instead of investing $100 per week, we may well vary our investment amounts between $50 and $250 per week depending on our cashflows, and maybe if we were to invest 4100 per week into bitcoin, then we might consider ourselves to be moderately aggressive, yet since we are actively monitoring and trying to maximize our investment into bitcoin, our weekly investment amount varies, yet we are striving to be as aggressively as we can without over doing it..

And so our level of aggressiveness ends up being a reflection in regards to how much we are prioritizing investing into bitcoin.  Whether that is 50% of our discretionary income, 80% of our discretionary income or even close to 100% of our discretionary income.  Any of those could be characterized as aggressive, and we can choose such level of aggressiveness based on our own priorities, and surely if we might be a single guy without too many obligations then we might have more abilities to choose to be more aggressive as compared with if we might have various other obligations that we might have to balance that might cause us to have to be less aggressive than what we would otherwise prefer to be.

There is no reason to consider that being aggressive in regards to bitcoin investing contributes towards more instability in a person's life and/or finances, even though any guy can be choosing his level of commitment to bitcoin.  The same is true when it comes from figuring out the extent to which the aggressiveness can be or should be tapered based on getting close or even exceeding the goals.  I do tend to think that there are going to be various points of reassessment, so that the level of aggressiveness is likely to taper off with the passage of time, and there may even be situations where guys are neither buying nor selling but just maintaining their BTC holdings, and perhaps even several years between ongoing buying of BTC until maybe some selling might be employed, and surely I consider that starting out with price based selling makes more sense in the earlier times of starting to sell and then later we might graduate into a phase of being able to sell at any time and not matter the price... especially in any of the scenarios, the sales should be coming out of the overaccumulated amounts, so there likely is a preference to make sure to reach overaccumulation status prior to engaging in sales of BTC.  

Surely any time that a guys chooses to sell BTC prior to reaching overaccumulation status, then he is running the risk that it is going to cost him more to reaccumulate the BTC that he sold, yet surely guys can do whatever they like, and sometimes it makes guys feel good t sell some BTC after they had been accumulating BTC for so many years, and surely for psychological reasons guys may want to take such chances because it makes them feel better and even if they are running risks of having to spend more to buy back the same quantity of BTC that they had ended up selling.


I don't really know about any specific discussions of the 200-WMA besides my own ongoing discussion of it, and sure maybe I don't discuss it well enough for it to make sense for others, so in some sense if you want to understand it's dynamics you need to pay attention to it.  Largely the 200-WMA is the Trade-weighted average of the last 200 weekly candles, so that makes it a measure of the average BTC price over the past 4 years (there are 208 weeks in 4 years).  You can specifically look at how historically the 200-WMA compares with BTC spot price at the website that Bitmover and I created about a year and a half ago.  

Part of my own point to emphasize the 200-WMA is that it ends up being a much more stable indicator of BTC bottom price, and the BTC spot price does not tend to go below the 200-WMA, except for short periods, even though between June 2022 and October 2023 (16 months) the BTC price spent a lot of time below the 200-WMA and it even reached 35% below the 200-WMA at one of the peak downward BTC price moves when the BTC price went to $15,479. So, largely the 200-WMA can serve as a bottom indicator and so even if we are buying and selling BTC at spot prices, we can still measure our behaviors, the valuation of our BTC holdings and even our strategies around where the spot price is relative to the 200-WMA... Another thing is that the 200-WMA has tended to ONLY go up, and even during the 16 month period between June 2022 and October 2023 that the BTC price spent a lot of time below the 200-WMA, the 200-WMA still ended up going up right around 20% on an annualized basis during that period of time, and yeah, the 200-WMA is not guaranteed to continue to go up, yet from my point of view it is a much more solid way for us to be attempting to manage our bitcoin holdings so that we do not overly sell too many bitcoin too soon and we make sure that we have enough BTC in terms of our own goals and to engage in sustainable withdrawal after we reach overaccumulation status (if we are able to achieve such?).   I talk about these ideas in my sustainable withdrawal thread too.


Sure, there could be reasons to continue to work and/or to leverage your labor, and so sometimes business owners can earn more by having and/or maintaining a business as compared to what they might be able to earn by working for someone else. Yet, if you reach a high enough bitcoin overaccumulation level that supports your lifestyle, then you would not have to work... but yeah, of course, it is your choice to figure out how to balance your life activities and if you believe that owning a business and working in such capacity is a way that you would like to spend your time, energies and money and including if you might consider that as a form of status and/or social interaction with your community that you would like to have.


Frequently we talk about holding 3 months or more of your expenses in your local currency or perhaps in some other stable form of currency, like the dollar, yet any of the fiats, including the dollar, are tending to decline in value, yet for emergency fund purposes, i tis good to be prepared for short falls in income and/or increases in expenses, that might end up interfering with your abilities to hold BTC if you are using BTC as your emergency fund rather than keeping your emergency fund in your local currency or some other kind of a fiat based currency that you consider to be relatively liquid and acceptable in regards to being able to use it on any of monthly your expenses.

It is more important for poor people to ensure that they have an emergency fund as compared with rich people who by definition will likely have various kinds of assets and access to funds that poor people do not tend to have unless they purposefully make sure that they have such funds in place so that they do not get screwed out of their investment due to their own sloppy cashflow management practices.


If you reach an overaccumulation status, then there is no need to sell large portions of your bitcoin in order that your bitcoin can sustain you, and so there are likely no needs to think about the extent to which you are in profits but instead think about the extent to which your BTC stash can sustain you at your chosen standard of living.. once your bitcoin reaches such level, then you likely are able to live at such income level in perpetuity a s long as you do not screw up your management of your systems... and surely the extent to which you might have age and/or health issues, then you may well choose to deplete your stash for those reasons, but if your BTC stash is otherwise supporting your standard of living, there would be no reason to sell bitcoin beyond  the employment of a sustainable withdrawal system that likely would mean that your bitcoin is likely to be gaining in value greater than the rate that you are spending it.

Of course, this thread is largely about how to accumulate bitcoin, yet surely we well need to know how to set our targets so that we know when we have accumulated enough and/or more than enough, and then at that point we may well need to know how to manage our BTC holdings once we have reached enough or more than enough, so yeah there could be a lot of ways that we end up selling too many BTC too soon because we wrongly presumed that we had gotten through our accumulation phase and we might wrongly believe that we had entered into either maintenance stage or liquidation stage, so surely it can be helpful to talk about how to know when we might have had reached overaccumulation stages and then how to deal with being at such a status once we arrive there.


If someone has lump sum amounts of money available, then that person has choices regarding whether to buy bitcoin right away or to defer based on time or based on price dipping (that might not happen).  It is not necessarily wise to defer, yet surely someone with greater sums of money has options and many normal people do not tend to have options for buying lump sums, so they tend to be better off to DCA.  DCA is not the right choice for all situations, even though it tends to be a very good way to ongoingly invest in bitcoin with money as it comes available - presuming that it is not a lump sum amount coming available.. so if there is a lump sum, then the person has options to 1) buy right away, 2) defer based on time (DCA) and/or 3) defer based on price (buy on dips).  All three could be employed when lump sum amounts come available such as a person who usually invests $100 per week into bitcoin and has a yearly salary of $30k, and maybe he had been investing into bitcoin for one or two years, and then all of a sudden, he has $10k come available to him.  To the extent that his emergency fund is already established, he might choose to put some of the $10k into each of the systems.


You are talking about trading and you are also talking about value in keeping money aside to buy dips rather than buying regularly... furthermore Wind_FURY was talking about ONLY buying during bear seasons, as if he could figure out when a bear season is coming, and many times newbies, including anyone in their first whole cycle of buying bitcoin are going to be much better off to be buying bitcoin regularly, persistently, consistently, ongoingly and perhaps even aggressively, rather than fucking around either trying to figure out if there is a dip or not or employing trading tactics.

Hopefully any newbies who are unable to resist the temptation to trade (gamble) are limiting their trading/gambling to less than 10% the size of their bitcoin investment (and without cheating by continuing to inject new money into their trading/gambling when it is not performing as well as their bitcoin investment that focuses on ongoingly accumulating bitcoin through buying bitcoin for 4-10 years or longer).