I have always believed that a quality forecast in sports betting is extremely important. More precisely, all elements of the gaming system are important in their own way: risk management, discipline with emotion control and strategy. But if you cannot generate a quality forecast with a high percentage of success, then it is unlikely that emotion control and discipline will help you.
I do understand your point. However one thing you also have to understand is the fact that your winnings are not a 100% dependent on your ability to strategize or your ability to forecast bets either. They are only contributors to your final chances of winning. No matter the game, you still require luck to pull off a win as long as it is a gambling activity especially in cases where the winning chances are thin.