Once a person reaches overaccumulation, there may well not be any need to continue to accumulate bitcoin, and any accumulation of bitcoin, after reaching overaccumulation stages would be optional.

If a person is engaging in sustainable withdrawal after reaching overaccumulation (whether price based and/or time based sustainable withdrawal), there would be no need to withdraw more than the overaccumulated amount, so the goal would be that your bitcoin holdings stays in overaccumulation status until such time as you might need the priciple based on health and/or age considerations... otherwise you can perpetually continue to withdraw from the overaccumulated amount without ever running out of BTC... of course, if you are spending from within the limits of your overaccumulated amount, then the value of your BTC, including that in the overacculated amount is growing faster than you are spending it.. until such time as you purposefully decide to reduce the principle based on age/health considerations.


We cannot presume that our BTC holdings have 10x'd in profits, yet if we put a year's salary into bitcoin and bitcoin had 10x'd in value, then it is quite likely that we are getting near what could be threshold fuck you status (an ability to live off our bitcoin and to replace our income)... How much we accumulate beyond our threshold level might help to establish how much we might be able to increase our standard of living to higher levels.

We should not be trying to give exact guidelines since any of us should be attempting to particularize the value of our bitcoin and how we might manage it to our own situation, and surely I think it would be bad to be selling large portions of our bitcoin holdings and putting ourself back under overaccumulation status, since that might justify that we have to go back to accumulating bitcoin since we no longer have enough (or more than enough).  

The more that we exceed our threshold accumulation level, the more options we have, and even at some point if we might have barely made our threshold overaccumulation level, it seems that if we are valuating our bitcoin holdings based on the 200-WMA value, then quite likely after 3 years or perhaps even less, our withdrawal rate will likely double merely from the passage of time (even if we had not added more BTC to it, as long as we were not withdrawing, either).   There are a lot of ways that we can choose to manage our BTC holdings in terms of keeping adding, stop adding but don't withdraw, stop adding but withdraw at a reduced rate, stop adding and withdraw at a maximum rate and/or variations of these ways of managing our BTC holdings with targets of continuing to allow it to grow or perhaps to merely keep it stable in value or perhaps to reduce its value over a certain period of time.... The BTC holdings are sustainable as long as they are not being reduced greater than the rate that they are growing.

What do you mean by investment period ending? Wait, are you saying someone can invest in Bitcoin and decide from the beginning that he will sell after a given number of years? That is funny because I'm just imagining what he will do if there have not been reasonable profits during that period, will he sell at loss? I don't see this as an efficient way to go about investing in Bitcoin because it has a chance of breeding frustration and loss of confidence and even money. Besides, someone who have this plan may be tempted to invest beyond what he should with the hope that he will recoup his investment when he sell. Some may even go as far as borrowing money to invest which is never advisable.

While investing in Bitcoin, it is good to give some room for time-based growth and not force the market to vomit profits at a set time. This is why it is strictly advisable to only invest discretionary income so that there will be no pressures to sell at a particular time.
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I don't agree with your assertions about how to weigh borrowing money, since you said that it is never advisable to borrow money, which seems a bit strict and/or closed minded in terms of assessing individual circumstances and loan terms.

For sure, there is value in terms of having some flexibility in our investment timeline, and we may well even vary the amount that we invest over time too.. based on various reassessments of our own capacities and our chosen lifestyle.


I can understand how some people might be hesitant to sell any of their prior investments in order to reallocate into bitcoin, yet even if someone might have been investing for 10 or 20 years and they may have built up an investment portfolio that is worth 2-5x their annual income, they still might want to consider that it might be valuable to figure out some kind of an allocation to bitcoin, but they still might have dilemmas about how to reach their target bitcoin accumulation level whether their target might end up being somewhere in the 5% to 25% amount or even some other target level that they would like to allocate towards bitcoin.

Maybe an example might help?

Let's say that a person is in his late 30s or early 40s,and he had been investing from his work salary for the past 15 years, and he invested around 15% of his salary into various index funds like a 401k and perhaps he owns property too... and so his income had started out in the lower $20ks, but he got promoted and received raises and cost of living increases, so now he is earning around $50k.  so maybe he invested around $60k over the years, and maybe his investments had largely doubled in value.  So they are currently worth around $120k.. but the guy would like to be able to get to a point of being able to withdraw at least 20% higher than his current income.

If he invested 5% to 25% into bitcoin, then that woudl be somewhere between $6k and $30k, but he might not want to deduct from his current investments, even though at his curent income rate, he is really ONLY able to invest at most $200 per week... which he realizes that it would take him around 3 years to reach $30k invested, so he may well try to figure out some kind of way to sell some of his current investments in order to reallocate into bitcoin, or some other ways that he is able to increase his weekly investment amount higher than $200 per week.. and surely there could be some employers that match contributions, so he might not even be incentivized to divert his income from his other investments into bitcoin, sine he would not receive the matching amount.  

Each person can be left with dilemmas in regards to getting into bitcoin, even if he has already established himself in other investments prior to getting into bitcoin.. but surely the guys with other investments are going to have more options than guys who are barely getting started and even guys who also might have to spend time making sure that their emergency fund has enough funds to give some protections to their BTC investment.


I agree that I said that cashing out 10% every time the BTC price doubles is a fairly conservative approach to price-based sustainable withdrawal.

Also, I am pretty sure that I said that selling 10% every time that the BTC price doubles is one of the possible portfolio management (and sustainable withdraw) methods that becomes available after reaching overaccumulation status.  Guys will sometimes start to employ methods of selling BTC prior to their having had reached overaccumulation status, and to the extent that my opinion matters, I do not agree with selling BTC prior to reaching overaccumulation status unless you are engaging in spend and replace or you have some kind of an emergency or you are cashing out due to age and/or health concerns.