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With most of the friends that I have talked to, this is the kind of narrative and explanation that they always throw at me. They have to wait for bitcoin to double its price so that they can also have double their money.
Of course, if you double your money based on price appreciation, then if you take out 50%, then you have taken out the totality of your whole investment, and so whatever is remaining in bitcoin is "house money," yet I am not sure if that is a good way to invest, especially in bitcoin.
There have been so many folks who have gone through several doublings, so then those doublings add up to quite exponential growths.
I think this is what the common people does. They're still trying to hold some but sadly we cannot stop them from selling because they've waited for this moment.
You may well be correct that normal people have a tendency to follow simple and straight-forward formulas that might not work to their advantage, including that in bitcoin we have a decently robust history of quite dramatic price performarce both to the upside and to the downside, which should spring curiosity in terms of trying to figure out why bitcoin had been engaged in that kind of price performance and/or if there might be some plausible explanation for the ways that bitcoin has historically performed in order to attempt to inform us about the nature of the asset.
Bitcoin's overall price performance and even explanations for what it is should justify investing into it and holding it, even if the justification might be to ONLY invest a small amount due to its historical volatility that has no real signs of going away.
I outlined the power of compounding in one of my earlier posts, and so surely we can find that continuing to allow doublings and even 9 doublings would end up in 256x in profits.. so it becomes quite a great value to be able to have enough patience to experience several doublings.
The power of compounding.
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This is a good visual for those that don't see why we're so optimistic about the future of Bitcoin. The early adopters of course have the advantage but it's never too late and we'd see more exponential growth for Bitcoin in the next years.
Of course, past performance does not guarantee future results, yet the evidence seems to continue to support that bitcoin is in its relatively early times and is likely to continue to be volatile into the future.. perhaps with less of an upward slope, yet there is no evidence to support that bitcoin prices have topped out.
I've said they're right but I get it when they're trying to win an argument over this thing because they're up for the altcoins.
Yep.. some guys are distracted into trading and others are distracted into shitcoins. I cannot proclaim to know, even though I tend to suggest to limit trading and shitcoining to less than 10% of the value of your bitcoin holdings (without cheating), and you are likely to outperform shitcoiners and/or traders, especially after a couple of cycles of investing into bitcoin.
They never listen.
I've personally have done that before and it just cost me losses and that's why if they want to try it, they can go ahead and take their losses. But if they listen, they've just saved their money and even profited more because they did lesser effort and have learned from others experience and lessons. And, they've accumulated more Bitcoins.
I personally think that guys who are more worried should invest smaller amounts into bitcoin so that it is less likely that they become emotional about their investment, yet it still is difficult to guide guys in their level of aggressiveness and to figure out how they should balance their personal circumstances amounting to their finances and their psychology. Surely if they spend some times honing their own balances within
their 9 factors then that might help, but it takes some work to figure out balances.
I've explained to them that it's real with altcoins but they're more volatile than Bitcoin and they might not see that altcoin they are so optimistic with in the next bull run.
Personally, I've told them that investing in Bitcoin requires patience and treat it as their savings. Instead of saving in the bank and making the bank win, they should be the bank themselves and take that win. The limited of supply of Bitcoin wasn't hard to explain to them but I hope that they have realized that or even the newbies nowadays.
I agree that Bitcoin is a long term investment despite that I have saved some, I am continuing it and putting money where my mouth is trying to prove it because it works.
It takes a long time to build wealth, and so hopefully for your own good, you can stay focused... and hopefully you can persuade some of your friends to stay focused, yet you cannot really change people in terms of their inclinations, so many times I just suggest to try to lead by example, and maybe some of them might become persuaded to go down an investor and bitcoiner route rather than trading and/or getting into shitcoins, yet if they are at least able to limit their exposure to trading and/or shitcoins to less than 10% the size of their bitcoin investment then at least they can at least limit their damage in the event that they cannot resist the temptation to shitcoin and/or to trade.
I think it's effective and you're right by making ourselves as an example. I've already told them, they can invest in altcoins that they want but please never settle for less and never ignore Bitcoin.
Whenever they ask me, I've always told them that Bitcoin is the biggest percentage of my portfolio and it's not just half, it's more than that and even close to the entirety of my port.
I don't even have to show what I've got but them looking at the market updates and prices, that's surely encouraging them.
Surely guys are going to have inclinations to want to do what they want and to forge their own path, and sometimes some of the guys will listen, even while they might choose their own path that might have way more allocation to shitcoins than prefered, but there is ONLY so much that we can do.
I had someone who I had been talking with about bitcoin and trying to make sure that he avoided shitcoins for several years, but just once or twice a year and maybe even some years that I might not have had seen him, yet last year I saw him several times during the second half of the year and into 2025, and at some point earlier at the end of 2024, he told me that he had sold a decent portion of his Ethereum and bought bitcoin with it, and so that position lasted several months, and then somewhere in March or April, he told me that he bought back Ethereum. I did not ask him if he bought back the whole Ethereum position, but I found it quite frustrating because he really was not listening to me, and he just traded, and there is ONLY so much that we can do, even though I had spent quite a bit of time with him, he has troubles resisting gambling and/or thinking that there might be some value in Ethereum .. or that at some point it is going to pump... which sure it might, but it is still a pretty dumb place to be putting time, energy and value.. at least from my perspective of the matter..
PS: I've got your threads link saved on me, your investment ideas. The two threads. Using it as references.
Great. Let me know if you have any questions, comments or concerns.. ... sometimes I feel that i need to update portions of those threads, but at the same time, the threads communicate many of my perspective regarding how to attack investing into bitcoin and concerning that many of us may well have to get through our BTC accumulation stages before some of the sub-topics in those threads would become more relevant, and surely some of the sub-themes are not without possible controversy.