It seems to me that newbies should be focusing on accumulating bitcoin, not trading nor preoccupied the extent to which you are in profits or not.  Once you spend a whole cycle accumulating bitcoin, then you might be in a better position to reassess if you want to continue to accumulate and/or if you might want to adjust any aspects of your strategy.  

One way in which you might not need to accumulate for a whole cycle would be if you had been able to frontload your investment into bitcoin, meaning accumulated more bitcoin from the start rather than merely buying from your discretionary income. Frontloading would likely give you more options, even though selling or trading might not be a good idea, especially before making it through at least a whole cycle.... yet of course, guys can do what they like in regards to accumulating bitcoin and live with the consequences of their actions.


That's an option too.  Lock in the profits, and buy some hooker, lambos and blow...

Better to mind rust on the way up rather than the way down, no?  An improvement on mind rusting.


You are not selling BIGLY?


Seeming possible.  50/50?  51/49?  Some other number?


You've been registered on the forum since June 2011, and you are just getting started with your BTC accumulation?  I can see that some guys mess up in their early years in bitcoin, yet even if you would have had been delayed a whole cycle in your BTC accumulation journey, 2015 would haver also been a good time to accumulate BTC, and surely my earlier point also stands that if you had done most of your BTC accumulation before 2020, you would have also had done pretty well - including that 2020 ended up being a good year to accumulate too.. in regards to concerns about bitcoin's performance in light of ongoing dollar debasement.

Frequently, after March 2020, I had been telling folks to up grade their BTC accumulation from $10 per week to at least $100 per week, so even if some folks starting from March 2020 in bitcoin might not have gotten rich, they still would have had likely out-peformed the debasement of the dollar through whatever BTC they were able to accumulate since March 2020.

Of course, it is more difficult to measure any progress for anyone who ended up getting started only in recent times, such as in less than a year, there is almost no way to be trying to measure progress, and many of us tend to recommend any newbies of less than a whole bitcoin cycle not to be concerning themselves with BTC prices until perhaps accumulating BTC for at least a whole cycle..

and then if you have spent at least a whole cycle accumulating BTC, it is quite likely that your BTC holdings would have had outperformed inflation (no guarantees of course), so you have to figure out your bitcoin investment size while at the same time get the fuck started and accumulate bitcoin consistently, persistently, ongoingly, regularly and perhaps even aggressively for 4-10 years or longer, and don't be whining about whether or not bitcoin has out paced the performance of the dollar, which the dollar is largely guaranteed to debase in value for the next 4-10 years or longer and bitcoin is amongst the best (if not the best) place to be holding your value.  Good luck in your learning about bitcoin... even though you could have had nearly a 14 year headstart over current bitcoin newbies.


Maybe a lot of this depends on the percentage that LFC choses to sell at each of various sell increments?  It is hard to give any exact ideas, and each of us have to decide.  I surely don't like the idea of presuming an ability to buy back cheaper, which surely would mean that the buy back for each of the sales would have to be at least 24% lower just to break even.

So, let's say for example that LFC has a stash that largely is below $12k per BTC.  No need to proclaim that he is more profitable.. but just having at least 10x in profits can justify sales, and maybe 10% of the stash every time the price doubles.. starting from $120k, but the increments could be with the first sale at $120k and to sell 1% to 2%, and then then next sale $140k with the same selling of 1% to 2%.  Surely LFC seems that he might be selling more, including that maybe he would have had planned to sell something in the ballpark of 30% of his stash (or perhaps more, since he is sounding a bit greedy in terms of the aspirations to buy back cheaper).. so then he would have had achieved the full intended amount of sales of 30% or more of his stash by the time the BTC price reaches $225k.. ..

Personally, I would not do it like that, but it is not necessarily even a bad thing if he were to still have perhaps 50% to 70% of his stash if we were to reach $225k, and so he would still have BTC that he could continue to sell.. perhaps every $40k to $50k rise above $225k.. maybe selling another 1% - 2% at each 10% to 20% that thee BTC price goes up... even if he is selling 1% to 2% for every 10% to 20% the BTC price is going up, he still would ONLY be selling within the price appreciation of the BTC, so even though he is selling more than what I would (and presumptively more than you hisslyness, his BTC holdings would be growing in value more than his selling amounts).

He surely would be selling more than me, but at the same time there could be some reasonable paths forward, yet perhaps if he were to end up selling close to or more than 50% of his stash and the BTC price keeps going up, then he has to live with a smaller BTC stash (and he can calculate out those possible consequences).

Surely, I recall prior to 2021, LFC had modified his earlier plan to sell 100% of his BTC at somewhere in the $60k range.. and he ONLY ended up selling around 25%, and maybe he has some regrets, since each of us are capable of doing Monday morning quarterbacking.. to look back and to see how we might have had made several of the plays better.. so it surely could be the case that LFC is going to try to play this price run BIGGER than h played the 2021 run, but still planning to always maintain a certain percent (maybe 30% or more) of his original BTC stack size.

I am maybe overly presuming and there is no way that LFC needs to provide specifics, yet I guess that I am suggesting that there can be many ways to play the price waves in reasonable ways that allows taking of profits and trading but not necessarily overly depleting the bitcoin stash. whether any of us can find any kind of right balance will depend on our own particulars.  I frequently consider that I should sell more BTC, yet I usually cannot bring myself to pull the trigger, since I continue to not have any specific thing that I feel that I need to or want to buy. .and just with my regular system, I tend to milk plenty of cash out of my lil precious at various points along the way in terms of my levels of withdrawals continue to tend to be way smaller than my authorized amounts, which also just allows an overwhelming majority of my bitcoin stash to continue to compound in value upon itself. ..even though currently portions of my stash are merely in the ballpark of 8-ish to 9-ish doublings (see various compounding in value numbers/rankings starting from $250), even though surely I like to proclaim my average cost per BTC is $1k-ish, yet if we continue to have quite outrageous BTC price performances, it might be good to start to consider my average cost per BTC to be in the $10k-ish territories.


Oh gawd adam.sandler.. You might have some interesting ideas, yet I doubt that they are as original as you are trying to proclaim them to be, and maybe I should not even be responding to your seeking attention over ideas about BTC price moves and/or BTC portfolio management ideas within our discussion.  Whether you want to have more credibility around here or not, there are probably ways to do it without sounding like a whiner or to suggest that others are being treated better than you.  It just takes time for guys to get to know you, in the event that you actually were a poster who was attempting to be genuine.


It seems to me that the CryptoJelleNL tweet that LFC quoted is referring to tops rather than bottoms (or corrections), so sure we can see both tops and bottoms in the marked up chart that was referenced in the tweet, so the implication is that if the top might be coming in late Q4 2025 or in Q1 2026, then the correction would come after the top where-ever that top might end up playing out... and yeah of course, we know that the halvenings are approximately every 4 years (slightly less than 4 years for each of the halvenings, so far), so our next halvening is anticipated to happen (like clockwork, perhaps?) in early 2028.. .. which would seem that if a correction that comes after the top would end up happening before early 2028- yet they still are talking/referring to tops and not to the corrections that you seem to want to discuss.


Ok?  that is helpful.




Seems like an incentive to not use banks - but does cash still exist?


There is an attempt to outlaw cash too, no?