Third or fourth quarter might still be bullish but we do not know yet until we are getting closer to that time. If bitcoin can move to around $139000 - $150000 early, the bear market may be very soon. It will be a period of highly massive price increase and which will be followed by price decrease. It may be in the third or forth quarter is my guess. But if it is in the third quarter, that means the bull run lwill ast up till their quarter. If it is in the fourth quarter, that means the bull market will be until the forth quarter. Just like in 2021, the bear market started in December which followed ATH, although it was pronounced bear market in 2022. Or maybe the bear market can be given a well define definition as to when the price fall begin in respect to when the price is no more rising as it should be.
Yes I agree with that if we get a huge price pump early say we get to above $150k before the last two quarter then I will say the market will most definitely dump in the third quarter, but the market will rise again in the forth quarter due to how many people see the fourth quarter as bullish period but the market might have his ATH already set in the second quarter if it did a quick run to $150k this quarter, we all saw how we got a new ATH before bitcoin halving last year and instead of the market to pump after that we saw correction instead.
So I agree that we can see the fourth quarter been bearish similar to when the market set an ATH in November 2021 and the price only ranger or should I say started falling in December. And yes I think the bearish or bullish tag should be when the dip or pump starts like now we have been in bull run since last year