The Arsenal vs Newcastle match will probably be a very fierce match. But I still feel quite confident that Arsenal as the host will win the match. Newcastle have indeed improved at this time but I still think they are still below Arsenal in terms of strength level. But if Arsenal is not in their best condition then yeah Newcastle can be favored. but I'm sure Arteta knows how important this match is. Because Arsenal only needs one win or at least 1 draw to secure a UCL ticket this season. Even though Arsenal is currently in second place, they are not 100% safe. So yeah, this match will be very important for Arsenal. But yeah, so does Newcastle.
The problem is that Arsenal are sometimes not in their best condition, especially in terms of the mentality of their players who have just received a hard blow because they failed again in the UCL. But even so, I still feel that Arsenal and Newcastle will be quite evenly matched in the coming week. So I think Arsenal can get a draw. And just 1 draw is good enough for Arsenal because it will make them safe with UCL tickets in their hands. Newcastle, which has high motivation, will certainly make it difficult for Arsenal. So I think we won't be surprised if Arsenal lose. It's just that if Arsenal loses this match then it will really put Arsenal at risk of losing their UCL ticket. because if Newcastle lose, it means Arsenal have to win or draw in the last match of the season. And fortunately in the last match of the season Arsenal will only face Southampton. So, Arsenal still has a big chance of getting a UCL ticket even though they lost this week.
It will be quite evenly matched as this is their last home game for the season and there is no reason for them to rotate players. In a season like this, you want to end it at home leaving a last great impression of a year that was supposed to bring some titles to Arsenal. If they were to not take the last home game seriously after not winning all those potential titles they have long been competing for, Arteta would lose sympathy among the fans and so would the players. That is why I think Newcastle is not going to get a walkover here and since Newcastle still needs a few points to qualify for the Champions League, this game is going to be evenly matched as you said.