Arsenal lost their last three matches against Newcastle United, and they don’t have any win in their last five matches; 2D3L. This shows that Arsenal’s performance towards the end of this season is not good, and their injured players are almost back; as an Arsenal fan, I don’t like the team we are becoming these days because I am highly disappointed in our team’s performance especially in the Champions League. However, I don’t think the players will be relaxed against Newcastle United because they know that they might lose the second position if they lose against Newcastle United and Arsenal might become the team to be fighting for the Champions League spot because the position is tight as both Chelsea, Aston Villa, and Nottingham Forest are fighting for.
Arsenal really can't afford to lose if they want to maintain and be safe with their UCL ticket. If Arsenal loses the last two matches this season then Arsenal could even lose their UCL ticket. And one way to secure a UCL ticket is to win this match or just get a draw in this match. But even if, for example, they lose the match against Newcastle, Arsenal will still have a chance as long as they win or get a draw in the last match. But I think it will be much calmer for Arsenal if they manage to win or get a draw in the match against Newcastle. That way, Arsenal will be more relaxed in the final match.
But with Arsenal's current condition, we don't know whether they will be the favorites or not. And head to head Newcastle does look like the favorite. But Arsenal will be the host. So Arsenal should still have the advantage in this match.
True, the numbers suggest that a draw would be "enough," but emotionally? It is about cleansing the PSG trauma from their system now. Emirates will be hyper-aware; one poor touch from Saka or quiet from Odegaard may cause the whole stadium to turn from support to stillness. Rice being fit might be the real dealbreaker here. Middlefield presence and vocal leadership both decline 30% without him. Gabriel missing is another silent wound no one's talking enough about.
Regarding Newcastle's favorite,Perhaps on momentum but emotionally they have nothing to lose. Arsenal, on the other hand, still plays with ghosts on their rear. This match is about trauma recovery as much as points.