Arsenal really can't afford to lose if they want to maintain and be safe with their UCL ticket. If Arsenal loses the last two matches this season then Arsenal could even lose their UCL ticket. And one way to secure a UCL ticket is to win this match or just get a draw in this match. But even if, for example, they lose the match against Newcastle, Arsenal will still have a chance as long as they win or get a draw in the last match. But I think it will be much calmer for Arsenal if they manage to win or get a draw in the match against Newcastle. That way, Arsenal will be more relaxed in the final match.

But with Arsenal's current condition, we don't know whether they will be the favorites or not. And head to head Newcastle does look like the favorite. But Arsenal will be the host. So Arsenal should still have the advantage in this match.