For now, I would be more concerned about hackers infecting my computer than about quantum threats in the coming decades. While technology advances quickly, it does not progress as fast as we might think. Additionally, if I were wrong and a quantum computer capable of breaking SHA-256 were to emerge tomorrow, it would most likely be kept secret for national security purposes.
Bitcoin would be the least of their concerns, as all modern communications rely on rsa ,ecdsa and others encryption methods.
A QC capable of breaking communications would be the weapon that replaces nuclear weapons.
Bitcoin will definitely be a serious target.
The US states and big companies like Tesla, MSTR, and El Salvador have large bitcoin reserved. They would care deeply if quantum attacks becomes a threat. Imagine national reserves being stolen what will happen to the nations economy. If billions in Bitcoin is lost due to quantum theft, it will reduce the trust in digital assets globally.
The amount of crypto reserves these countries have is nothing compared to their reserves in other natural resources. This would not affect them at all; it would only raise national security concerns. When we talk about quantum computers, we mistakenly think of individuals doing evil things, as if such technology were easily accessible to everyone.
Look at it this way, no one with access to such power would want to undermine these technologies. Instead, they would try to take advantage of them. It would be far more important to exploit or spy on the enemy’s communications to the point of controlling weapons on foreign soil. While there is a lot of money in crypto, an attack would make it lose its value. It might ruin a few individuals, but the world would continue as usual since cryptocurrencies are used by a minority.