More if you are willing to provide your analysis here, I really appreciate it and will congratulate you for your winning bet with your friend. At least the new ATH price you are referring to since Bitcoin is already close to the $109k price, only less than $2,500 more to get to $109k based on the 24-hour high of the exchange chart.
Anyway, what price of ATH do you want?
Bitcoin All Time High was arriving at $109114 last four months ago. Then we saw quite down because of the different situations of the market such as: War, Trump Tariff etc. However, after overcoming them, the situation in the market has moved well. 24 hours High Price 105.5k+. But I think it will not last, can take some correction 104k or 103k then will then again pump. As much as I understand will create New ATH in the next two to three days. 22 May bitcoin pizza day so Bitcoin will have a huge impact on this day and the potential to create New ATH is most.
Believe it or not is everyone's right. I mean, the market situation in the middle of April and until now, which is about to enter the last week of May, has not been affected by the events you mentioned. In fact, the market is quite stable at $100k and rising slightly as if to show that nothing is happening out there.
The price of Bitcoin when you made this post with a 24-hour high of $105.5k and there are still no visible signals for a correction to occur below $100k. In fact, today's 24-hour high reached $107,985.
ATH is ATH. Since Bitcoin Global M2 is following the chart, I think we can see 150k - 160k in the month of August. However, no war or economic bad effect during this period.
The $150k - 160k ATH price you want to see is still very possible. Let's go. Let's wait together.