As my last line of the thread says: "Obviously, it doesn't work this way, and there are many factors that influence the price, but it's interesting, at least for me, to look at it from a mathematical perspective", when speculating, no one is right and no one is wrong until it happens.
It is fine as a curious point of view and for debate, but you have already seen that there are several of us who are very skeptical.
That's why my final line. I understand that many factors influence Bitcoin's price, and no one can know exactly what will happen next in the market. I also think that those who claim a bearish or bullish season is coming are simply being massively influenced, as we cannot predict which season will come. This happens because if you repeatedly tell enough people that a bearish season is approaching, they will start acting accordingly, which paradoxically creates a bearish season.
So, the prediction was only accurate because it manipulated people's perception into taking action. Therefore, no one here disagrees that the price is unpredictable, but it is manipulable, we're just speculating on what could or could not happen.