After all this time on the forum, I'd have assume that you've at least heard the terms "bear season" and "bull season." But you clearly didn't take them into consideration when you came up with the mathematical formula, because if you did, you'd know that the math is incorrect. We are currently in a bull season, and we anticipate Bitcoin to hit an ATH this year. After that, bear season will kick in by next year and the price of Bitcoin will begin to decline.