Please don't just read the title and hear me out as I couldn't think of anything better and shorter at the same time.
I have had a debate with someone about the martingale system which we both know it's failure but with adaptation and low bets low revenues, compared to simply straight betting for the favorite. The talk was about choosing top tier team from each football league and keep on betting in a side by side experiment for the entire championship.
Luckily for me it seems like the
statistics are available , so I want to give it a try on past records for some like 5 teams, a straight bet on win, a bet on win or draw, and a martingale system with a cut loss at 5.
Do you think any of the strategies would have worked this season?
Which teams should I consider? My choice were Inter, Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea, Bayern, Real, Barcelona and PSG but those are way too many!
The best answer you can get will certainly be from your self... test it with amounts that you are willing to lose and see what hapen.
But, if you want to consider my opinion... I sincerely believe that if you bet only on these favorites than you will be have a "modest" result at most, because the strongest teams usually has negative odds on bookmakers and that is why you will need to be very precise in these bets. If you have a loss, just double the amount you bet in the next one will not be enough for you to recover your losses, understand?
And about the martingale with a limit of 5 losses... I still think its risky, because you need look... if you start with $100 bet, you can reach up to $1600 on the fifth lost bet, with a total loss acumulated of $3100. Right? Are you willing to do that?
Of course it is very unlikely to have so many losses in a row if you are going to bet on elite teams, but I don't think you will be able to recover your losses the way you expect.