A draw would not guarantee them a Champions League place because if Aston Villa and Newcastle both get wins, then Chelsea will drop to 6th place, while Nottingham will remain in 7th place. The only sure guarantee is victory, but that only applies to Chelsea, while Nottingham still has to depend on other teams. This is shaping up to be a very exciting match to look forward to. Chelsea may have a more glamorous squad than Nottingham, but Nottingham has the advantage of playing at home, and their players have good chemistry with each other.
Your analysis are correct and i understand the fact that Nottingham Forest is playing at the home but that zeal and energy they got the first time when they met Chelsea at Stamford bridge and played draw is no longer there again because they have really decline in performance while Chelsea is at a better performance now and would not like to jeopardize their chance of qualifying for the Champions League games next season so they will take the match more serious than Nottingham Forest. Chelsea will win Nottingham Forest but it might just be a slim win which will help them secure a Champions League position. I don't also want to neglect that Nottingham Forest have good forwards who are active in goal scoring and they can still frustrate Chelsea from making it to the Champions League, it is very much possible.
Take it from me that Chelsea are not going to win Nottingham forest. Nottingham forest are also chasing same thing that Chelsea are chasing, and that's what going to make this match so tough. This is one game I have been anticipating for so long, although I was thinking that before the last day of the season, either Chelsea or Nottingham forest must have known their fate as regarding the top 5. But as things stands right now, this match is going to be the decider of who plays in the champions league or not. This match is going to be the most watch and believe me Chelsea are not going to have it easily. You are going to see a different Nottingham forest today. Chelsea are not qualifying for the champions league next season.