Sure, investing into bitcoin and even reaching overaccumulation status tends to be a product of both time and also how much we are ongoingly putting into bitcoin, yet even if we had not yet reached overaccumulation status, the passage of additional time could put our bitcoin holdings over such threshold and into overaccumualtion status.  

Let's say for example a person with around a $50k per year income had been investing into bitcoin fairly aggressively for 7 years at a rate of about $200 per week (which is about 21% of his income) between the beginning of 2017 and the end of 2023.  By the end of 2023, he had invested right around 73.2k into bitcoin (which is about 1.5x his annual salary) and he had accumulated nearly 10.6 BTC,

and so he was feeling pretty good about his bitcoin investment, yet in early 2024, he knew that 10.6 BTC would only support an income of about $31.6k per year, and his goal was to achieve an annual income of $80k per year from his bitcoin and to be able to adjust such annual income upwardly every year in order to account for the anticipated (and likely inevitable) cost of living increases (dollar debasement).

In January 2024, he would have had needed to have 26.84 BTC in order to sustain an income of $80k annually, and so he was faced with a choice to keep accumulating and/or to just let the time pass, and perhaps this guy was starting to feel that he was not getting as much bang for his buck by continuing to put $200 per week into bitcoin, so he decided to put most of that $200 somewhere else and to just let the time pass. Sure he could continue to buy bitcoin, but he also does not need to buy bitcoin in order for the likelihood that the passage of time will bring his 10.6 BTC up to an amount that is close enough so that he can sustainably live off of it at his target income rate.  Of course, you may have had recognized that personally, I prefer to suggest that guys continue to buy bitcoin rather than to just let passage of time play out yet each guy has to figure out the extent to which he believes that he is getting enough bang for his buck in regards to continuing to invest into after he had already invested quite a bit and the BTC price had appreciated a lot or if he might use his income in other ways.

At the time of this post (nearly 17 months after his January 2024 assessment), his 10.6 bitcoin would give him an income of about $50.5k per year, which surely is more than what he would have had been able to get in January 2024, and right now in order to have a sustainable income of $80k per year, he would need at least 16.781 BTC, which is right around 10 BTC fewer than the 26.84 BTC that he would have had needed in January 2024.

So surely he could have had continued to accumulate bitcoin, yet at this time, his merely holding his bitcoin is coming up in value faster than he would have had been able to accumulate it, even if he were to have had continued with his fairly aggressive approach of using 21% of his income ($200 per week) to continue to accumulate bitcoin in the past 17 months.

I agree that his stash is not even quite at the threshold level to start to withdraw at $80k per year, yet it seems quite likely that even if he does not accumulate any more bitcoin, within a couple years 10.6 BTC will be enough to start to withdraw at $80k per year.. but at the same time, he also might want to get to deeper into overaccumulation status before he starts to withdraw any BTC, which also could justify either accumulating more bitcoin and/or just waiting an additional amount of time in order to create a greater cushion.  These are somewhat individualistic determinations, even though there could be some commonality that guys might start to feel that they are justified to start becoming less aggressive in their BTC accumulation, so the guy could also slowly reduce his investment amount too from $200 per week to $100 per week to $50 per week, yet many of us also likely recognize that the mere maintence of $200 per week over 7 years was enough to reduce the $200 per week in size since $200 per week is not worth as much in 2024/2025 as compared to what it was worth in 2017 when he first started investing at that rate.


Many times when we are transitioning from a bear to a bull (and even the opposite from a bull to a bear), we cannot really have confidence that the transition is real until the price gets above (or below) certain amounts and maybe is sustained there, so surely the actual knowledge (rather than just guessing) about the transition tends to be quite a bit of a lagging indicator.


You are correct with your presumption that investing into bitcoin is a product of both the BTC accumulation amount and also the passage of time, yet there likely could be ways in which guys are able to reach overaccumulation status in less than 4 years... and sometimes they might assess themselves within overaccumulation status based on differing criteria.

Overaccumulation status has some ambiguity within it, since it could be used as a description of reaching fuck you status and being able to sustainably live off of the bitcoin, or it could be assessed as going beyond one's target accumulation level, such as a guy who might come to bitcoin, and he might have various investments into properties, stocks, bonds, commodities, cash and/or business dealings, and so maybe he shoots to aggressively invest into bitcoin at a rate of 20% of his income or to reach a status of 20% of his overall investment portfolio... yet when he might end up reaching a status of 25% to 30% invested into bitcoin, he might start to feel that he had overaccumulated in bitcoin, even though he is not yet at fuck you status.

Maybe an example might be helpful?  Let's say that a guy with $100k per year income started investing into bitcoin in April 2021. .so that was 4 years ago, and perhaps, all of the guy's investment were around $200k, and so if he was aiming at investing 20% into bitcoin, his goal was to put $50k into bitcoin in the next year and then to keep his investment into bitcoin at around 20%, so by the time April 2022 comes around, then he will figure that he would have had purchased $50k worth of bitcoin, and so his overall investment portfolio would then add up towards being around $250k.  

Maybe there is a bit of unrealism in this example since the money that this guy is using which amounts to almost $945 per week might not be able to come strictly from his income, since that would be around 50% of his annual income, yet the money has to be drawn from some where, and sure maybe the guy had some source of funds that was a combination of his income and some other money that he could draw from that did not involve depleting any of his other investments... yet anyhow, at the end of the first year, we can see where the guy had gotten after investing and he merely has around 1.11 BTC at the end of his first year investing into bitcoin.  

He has reached his target of 20% of his total quasi-liquid investment portfolio invested into bitcoin, yet he is not satisfied, and also the whole time that he had been investing into bitcoin the BTC price had been up and down and just all over the place, and he just found the whole matter of the BTC price going down in 2022 to have had become an opportunity for him to keep investing into bitcoin, yet maybe he invests into bitcoin at a lower weekly rate since he felt that he reached his target accumulation amount but he still found the period of 2022 and 2023 to be an opportunity to keep investing into bitcoin.

From April 2022, he decides to invest at $255 per week which would be right around 13% of his annual income, and perhaps he continues investing in his other investments or perhaps he just leaves his other investments and let's his bitcoin investment grow at a rate that is faster than the other investments (and contributing to his investment into bitcoin becoming way greater than 20% as compared with the others).

So then perhaps after an additional 2 years investing into bitcoin he had invested an additional $27k into bitcoin, and accumulated nearly another whole BTC and by the time he is at April 2024, he has brought his total bitcoin investment to around $77k invested and 2.11 BTC.  Perhaps over those same 3 years his traditional investment increased from $200k to $300k, yet his 2.11 bitcoin portion invested of $77k was actually worth $69k with the 200-WMA and $150k at the then spot price.  

In either assessment the guy is feeling that he is bordering on the point of overaccumulation, since his bitcoin investment is coming to be larger portions of his overall portfolio (greater than 20%), yet perhaps he feels that he should continue accumulating bitcoin at around the same rate.. and perhaps reducing his weekly amount to $150 per week starting from April 2024.. but he feels that he does not have enough bitcoin, so maybe instead of reducing to $150 per week, he decides to keep the same rate of $255 per week..

Starting from April 2024 until April 2025, with his $255 per week investment into bitcoin he had invested an additional $13.77k and accumulated an additional 0.18875 BTC, bring his total invested to $90.77k and his BTC stash to 2.3 BTC, and today we can assess the 2.3 BTC as having a 200-WMA value of $110k, and a spot price value of $250k, which surely is a much greater value than his traditional investments, and he is invested more than 20% into bitcoin as compared with his traditional investments -depending on how he valuates his bitcoin for the sake of determining if he has reached overaccumulation status in terms of his ultimate targets to be able to live off of his various investments or if he might assess the bitcoins valuation relative to his target of having 20% invested into bitcoin or maybe he purposefully changes his target in order to account for his having had learned more about bitcoin and perhaps becoming more bullish about bitcoin after learning about it..

Even though my example does not exactly show a guy who had clearly and unambigously reached overaccumulation status in less than 4 years, there remain various ways to assess such overaccumulation status and guys could reasonably come to determine that they reached overaccumulation status in a shorter period of time (including less than 4 years) and perhaps partially based on their attempting to front-load their Bitcoin investment.  The example that I mentioned may well be way better off to keep accumulating bitcoin as aggressively as he can, but his own criteria had initially targeted 20% invested into bitcoin, and there are ways that we can assess that his bitcoin has gotten to be greater than 35% to 40% the size of his traditional investments (depending on if we valuate the bitcoin at the 200-WMA or at spot price).

Each guy is still left with dilemmas in regard to how to assess their valuation of their bitcoin and what actions they might need to take in regards to their assessment of their bitcoin investment and/or strategies along the way.

The example of the guy that I gave could also have had determined after the first year investing into bitcoin that maybe he would remove some of the assets from his traditional investments, including that maybe in 2022 when the BTC price was between $15,500 and $20k, he might have decided to remove $60k from his traditional investment and buy 3.3 additional bitcoin for around $18.2k each... so then at the end of this whole process we could add that he ended up investing an additional $60k into bitcoin  as compared my earlier example so that his total investment amount would have ended up being $150.77k into bitcoin and his total bitcoin holdings at the end of the period would be 5.6 BTC, which is becoming even more clearly to have had been possible to getting an assessment of overaccumulation in terms of both how much he had invested into bitcoin as compared with his traditional investment (including that he took $60k from his traditional investments), yet he might start to feel that he is getting close to reaching accumulation status within a 4-year timeline.

There surely are ways to be aggressive and perhaps even a bit on the high side of aggressive without necessarily overdoing it, and surely even my hypothetical guy might consider the extent to which he continues to accumulate, since at the end of this 4 year timeline, if we include him lump sum investing $60k into BTC, he has still invested more than 150% of his annual income into bitcoin within 4 years... which the guy might consider to be enough or more than enough invested, and he might want to either reduce his DCA or just let his investment ride, yet he might still not feel that he is ready, willing or able to start to withdraw from his investment, since even 5.6 BTC in current times would only really allow him to withdraw about $27k per year, and he would prefer to get into the territory of being able to replace his current income of $100k per year..so he may well need more passage of time for his bitcoin to appreciate to such levels, even though he feels that he is on the right path.

First you should know that over accumulation varies with individuals what I mean by this is that what I will call over accumulation may not be what you will call over accumulation because of difference in capacity. Lets assume I am earning $500k a month and you are earning $10k in a month, do you think we are going to have the same target? Do you think the money I will be using monthly to invest will be the same as yours off course it can not, my monthly investment money can be your whole salary a month because I earn X of what you earn a month, so it is possible to get an over accumulation within an interval of 4 years because of capacity, target, commitment and consistency.
[/quote]

You should try to be a bit more realistic with your examples, and talking about guys earning $500k a month is not very realistic, including that $10k a month is a pretty high amount, and sufficiently good for the high end, so if we say that one guy (the high guy) earns $10k per month and another guy (the low guy) only earns $500 per month, then those would be more realistic comparisons.  Surely the guy with $10k per month has a lot more options than the guy only earning $500 per month.