However, is there constantly a discrepancy between the odds and the probability of a team or player winning? After all, the odds are precisely the gauge of the player or the team's probabilities.
It's not like the odds don't reflect it. It's not like the odds suggest a team is most probably losing yet all analyses and opinions are saying it will most probably win.
The odds themselves are probabilities. They reflect analyses, statistics, strengths and weaknesses, and so on.
Yes, but the odds can be wrong and they often are wrong. If odds were almost always right, you could get rich by following the odds all the time.
They can be wrong, of course. I said they reflect probabilities not certainties. After all, games are still to be played. Players and their coaching teams could commit errors. Weaker teams could turn out more prepared, more excited, and so on. New plays, new strategies, a certain amount of progress, lessons learned, adjustments, and a dozen other factors could change game results.
Upsets do happen, of course. But they're precisely called upsets because they're not expected.
Odds are almost always right. In the NBA, for example, there's a 70-75% win rate for favorites. In the NFL, the win is 65-70%. The reason why you won't get rich by sticking with favorites all the time is the odds. You may win 70-80% of the time sticking with heavy favorites and you could still be net negative.