We are not talking about trading in this thread.

The idea of buying the dip, in terms of the purpose of this thread is to be able to get more bitcoin for the same amount of dollars spent.


Even though "overaccumulation status" and "fuck you status" can be similar, I have been describing my dilemma around overaccumulation status and not so much about having any dilemma about "fuck you status."  It is generally a good problem to have in terms of reaching either of those statuses, since getting to either point signifies the having of quite a few options and perhaps even being triggered into considering the extent to which past practices might need to be adjusted in order to account for reaching either or both of those statuses.

I have been describing "overaccumulation status" as a point in which a person concludes that he has enough or more than enough bitcoin.

Frequently, I have been using  "fuck you status," to describe a point in which a person concludes that he no longer needs to work.

I suppose with either overaccumulation status or fuck you status there would be threshold points in which we are barely reaching our definition of getting there, and so we are perhaps on the border and also subject to error if we are considering ourselves to be on the border rather than clearly within such status, so in that case, there is likely some need to get past the threshold and to have a bit of a cushion prior to changing our actions. .in the case of overaccumulation status to stop or slow down accumulating bitcoin... and in the case of fuck you status to quit our work or to substantially decrease our hours.

These are not exactly black and white matters since we could start to change our actions while crossing into such places, and we likely already feel empowered as we are building our bitcoin stash...

Sometimes, we might also have a combination of traditional investments and bitcoin in which we can draw upon, and we might have a variety of kinds of work that we can choose to reduce certain parts of our work that we either do not enjoy or we find too draining or that we have activities that we would prefer to be doing, rather than some of our kinds of work.


Each of them have potential to reduce your bitcoin stash... so that reduction of the BTC stash should be taken into account and even projected out.

I frequently have been using the idea of a guy who might be shooting to have an income of $80k per year, and surely it can become more clear when we attempt to illustrate with some kind of an example... so then the guy who is aspiring to retire with an $80k per year income might have had started out with a lower income such as $50k.. and perhaps he had been investing into bitcoin at around $150 per week ($67k) for the last 8.5 years and accumulated nearly 11 BTC.  Whether he aspires for his own standard of living income int he future or a higher standard of living, there can still be perceived to be some advantage in maintaining an income and/or lifestyle that had already been established, and I personally consider that my own formulations of "living off" a bitcoin stash in a sustainable way, there would be a sufficient accounting for the cost of living increases too, whether those cost of living increases are going up 3% per year, 10% per year or some other amount... so even if we might consider a cost of living increase of 6% per year, then year 1 would be $80k, year 2 would be $84.8k, year 3 would be $89.89k, year 4 would be $95.28k, etc. etc. etc.

So right now we can see that a guy who has 16.696 bitcoin is at the threshold level to produce time-based sustainable withdrawal of $80k per year, and so he already has a lot of options, even if he has not quite reached that level, since if he might not be ready to start to withdraw then he might be able to project out a timeline in which he could start to engage in time-based withdrawal, and let's say for example, he has accumulated slightly more than 11 bitcoin, so he tentatively projects out that within about 2 years 10BTC will be enough for his $80k per year income, and within another year (so that is 3 years from now) he feels that he would have enough of a cushion beyond $80k per year to start to time-based withdraw of his BTC. .. so at this time, he might project out to never go below 10 BTC, yet he might project out that he is able to discontinue putting extra money into bitcoin and perhaps even to start to engage in price-based withdrawal of his BTC.  Sure, he could also structure out that he is ONLY buying dips (and set aside money for that).. so he has considered that he has gone into a BTC portfolio maintenance stage rather than in a strict BTC accumulation, so if the BTC price goes down he is accumulating more, and if the BTC price goes up, he has a schedule for selling within his overaccumulation (anything that he considers beyond 10 BTC), and he considers that he has reached overaccumulation status that justifies his moving from overaccumulation to a kind of maintenance that involves price based sustainable withdrawal.

Hopefully, I am not making this too confusing, even though I am trying to justify that reaching overaccumulation status may well be at different points in time for price-based sustainable withdraw or even BTC portfolio maintenance which might not quite be at fuck you status, and at the same time, surely having more of a BTC quantity cushion gives more options regarding how to stay above quantities that are determined to be enough or more than enough... which then may also free up some money for consumption rather than continuing to invest into bitcoin with new money coming from other sources, even if there might not be determinations to engage in time based sustainable withdrawal, there could be determinations to engage in price-based sustainable withdrawal (that also might be considered as attempts at portfolio maintenance).


It seems to me that any of these situations can be utilized when considering transitioning from accumulation phase to maintenance phase, which is prior to starting to withdraw from the BTC stash, so a person might want to make sure that he has enough of a cushion of overaccumulation of bitcoin prior to starting to withdraw from it.. and yeah, if he continues to have various sources of income so that he does not have to spend his bitcoin, he can still decide if he wants to continue to build up his bitcoin or to just maintain it at some level he considers as acceptable.
 

I tend to think that both lessening of accumulation aggressiveness and even the employment of something like price-based sustainable withdrawal could start before reaching fuck you status, yet surely it may be way less complicated to make sure that a guy has already reached fuck you status prior to either reducing his investment into bitcoin rate or employing any withdrawal practices, yet from my perspective, it seems more realistic that a guy is going to transition by reducing his aggressiveness in bitcoin buying since it might not seem as effective for a guy with a $50k per year income to continue to put $150 per week into bitcoin after he might have already build up his bitcoin investment up to 11 bitcoin over the prior 2-ish cycles.
 

Yeah, but isn't the DCA strategy allowing guys to tailor their BTC accumulation to their own cashflow situation... so even though we are getting BTC in the process and maybe we are keeping track of how much money we put into BTC and how many BTC we have and how that is valuated, our main advantage in DCA buying seems to revolve around our abilities to tailor our weekly (or whatever other period of buys) to our own cashflows... so even though monitoring our BTC costs and quantities and likely seeing it grow, we might not really get into any position to change our level of BTC accumulation and/or aggressiveness in regards to our bitcoin until after a whole cycle or maybe even two cycles.  Sure, even after one whole cycle, if a guy had been accumulating bitcoin by investing 15% or more of his income into bitcoin, he may well start to see that he is getting towards having 60% or more of his income invested into bitcoin, and there could some assessment regarding the extent to which the bitcoin price might have changed during that time, too... and surely also any guy who is able to front load his bitcoin investment and even get a whole year's income or more into bitcoin within the first whole cycle, then he also might find himself at a higher level of accumulation in which he is also considering the size of his BTC stash and how that might relate to any additional bitcoin buys that he might make into the future and whether he might consider either moving away from DCA and/or changing the level of his aggressiveness in terms of his bitcoin buys.
 

Yep.  Dips might not come, and so DCA is likely a better practice for the majority of available money as it comes in, even though surely there could be systems of setting aside some portion (such as 25%) of the available money for buying dips and the dip amounts could be determined in advance without being too greedy about the matter.  Surely, I am not suggesting buying the dip to be superior in any kind of way, even though some guys might feel good to set some money aside for dips that may or may not happen, even if they are mostly remaining focused on their weekly DCA buys.


You make a good point Makus.  If we stay focused on our ongoing bitcoin accumulation through ongoing buying, such as DCA, then we will be less likely to get distracted by the price, since we cannot even really know if bitcoin prices are good bad or otherwise while we are in the process of going through our BTC accumulation.. yet after 4-10 years or more of BTC accumulation, we may well be in a better place to both assess where we are at, how we got there and whether we might need to make any adjustments to our BTC accumulation and/or BTC portfolio management approach based on where we are at and perhaps even considering how we got to where we are at that time.  

Most likely we will end up thanking our past selves for being as aggressive as we were able to have had been in our bitcoin accumulation in our earlier years, so long as we were aggressive and we did not end up overdoing it and recking ourselves in the early years of our bitcoin accumulation process.


You highlight a good point Tmoonz since if guys are selling from time to time with expectations to either profit in dollars from such BTC sales or to buy back BTC cheaper, then they are most likely going to end up selling way too much of their bitcoin too soon, and then they end up in a dilemma of not having enough bitcoin but at the same time feeling locked out of buying bitcoin since they don't want to buy back higher than their earlier selling price.

So including selling into their BTC accumulation techniques ends up putting them in a wrong mindset that could have had been averted if they had stayed focused on ongoing bitcoin accumulation through buying rather than incorporating selling into their attempts to accumulate more bitcoin.


We do not need to proclaim that traders are losing money in an 8-10 year trading timeline in order to suggest that the odds are quite high that they would not have had been able to perform better than the guy who merely just bought and held bitcoin during that time.

Let's say that a guy had an income of around $30k per year over the past 10 years, and he bought $100 per week worth of bitcoin over that time.  He would have had invested right around $52.5k and he would have had accumulated right around 30 BTC.

Currently the 200-WMA valuation for 30 BTC is $1.44 million, and the spot price valuation is $3.12 million.  I have a hard time imagining a trader with a similar budget over the same period of time being able to beat those kinds of investment results.  Furthermore, personally I would suggest that there are decently good odds, based on the 200-WMA, that a person could sustainably have a withdrawal rate of $144k per year, which is nearly 5x the guys current income.


You still have to narrow down what you mean, sine we might say that any strategy of consistent buying of BTC is good, which means that guys can tailor to their own financial and psychological circumstances; however, some guys might conclude that they are smarter than everyone else and they are going to improve upon the buying strategy buy selling on the way up and buying on the way down (trading/gambling) or they are going to identify shitcoins that are profitable and they are going to invest in those and then buy bitcoin with the profits.  If left on their own, there are other financial instruments that guys might choose to use too, such as leverage and/or margin, which might end up screwing up their bitcoin accumulation progress.

I am not going to agree that all investing approaches are equal unless we are just saying that ongoing buying is a good thing, so then we just get back to DCA, since DCA is ongoing buying within a guys budget.. even if some guys might carry out their ongoing buying in different ways.  Some guys will be more aggressive and others will be more whimpy, and so they will end up with differing results, especially over 8-10 years or more.  In the short term of 1-4 years, there might not be too many BIG differences between the whimpy and the aggressive bitcoin investor, yet it is quite likely that over longer periods of 5-10 years or more, the compounding effects will start to show themselves in regards to the aggressive approach being superior to the whimpy approach.. even though some guys are still going to be more comfortable with a less aggressive and more of a whimpy approach to their bitcoin investing (accumulating) journey.


Compounding effects of being a good and hardworking student versus a student who does not work so hard is likely going to show more after several years too, and frequently it will be difficult to reverse the good versus bad results that come from the ones who build up their skills earlier in life versus those who are not ready, willing and/or able to focus.


The analogy only goes so far, since there are nature versus nurture aspects of student performance too... Some students are greater gifted than other, and also some come from more organized families than others and sure some students work harder than others. So there are a combination of factors that contribute towards positive student performance and/or life-long results that might be positive or negative.


Even though some parallels can be drawn between bitcoin investing and the performance of students, I don't really like your analogy too much, even though sure there can be consistent forms of ongoing investment that are both DCA and lump sum, and even buying the dip can be structured in consistent ways and within formulas in order to help to guide the extent to which an investor is aggressively accumulating bitcoin or whimpily doing it or not even trying to accumulate bitcoin..