Just recently, the head of Great Wall Motor spoke about a possible crisis in the automotive industry similar to the situation with Evergrande.
And one of the “triggers” of the new crisis could be BYD.
The reasons are reminiscent of the problems in the construction sector (Evergrande) - huge overproduction and the inability to fulfill sales plans outside China, huge subsidies from the state budget, accumulation of debts and unsold cars, while costs remain constant.

Of course, BYD representatives were quick to respond, saying that “everything is actually fine, we will exceed our plans, we are capturing markets, and our competitors are doing very badly...”
But, as they say, “there's no smoke without fire.” It is enough to listen to the response of BYD representatives and double-check their “figures” to immediately notice manipulation, such as with Toyota's debt indicators. According to BYD representatives, this figure is $374 billion. You can find this figure, but if you dig deeper, you will find that it is one of the estimates based on one of the methodologies. At the same time, BYD chose the most “convenient figures” without showing its own figures based on the same methodology. Let me remind you that Toyota is one of the best-selling car brands in the world, and without huge subsidies from the state.

The bottom line is that state-subsidized companies that are ramping up production, as practice has shown, are running into the problem of not being able to sell their products. At the same time, huge amounts of state money keep pouring in because it's really expensive to support such a manufacturer (or, more accurately, a group of manufacturers), but without state support, these companies would just collapse from overproduction.

My question to the esteemed community is: how likely do you think it is that the Chinese automotive industry could experience a situation similar to that in the construction market? It is also worth considering the “tariff war” with both the US and the EU, as it is these markets (with high purchasing power) that can consume “surplus overproduction” so that the Chinese automotive industry can continue to stay afloat.