[edited out]
The numbers you shown are quite reasonable.
What I was saying is that
I cannot assign a probability for things to go 'as expected' (which is your scenario that I want to agree with) vs "not as expected", which is, I posit, currently incalculable. There is, definitely, nothing to base the bet on right now.
I doubt that any of us have high expectations that even our base case scenario will play out, since many things can happen to cause some aspect of our assumptions to no longer warrant the base case scenario, and we even likely realize that it is not uncommon for minority scenarios to end up playing out. Sure, if we just ballparkedly call a direction, then we might be able to assign some kind of a majority/minority kind of odds of yes either it happens or it does not happen, yet if we try to drill down into specifics in regards to what the BTC price will be on July 23, then we are opened up to a lot of variance, even if we might be allowed to frame the July 23 price in $1k ranges or maybe $2k ranges.
What will be the price on July 23?
1) Below $91k
2) Between $91k and $93k
3) Between $93k and $95k
4) Between $95k and $97k
5) Between $97k and $99k
6) Between $99k and $101k
7) Between $101k and $103k
8.) Between $103k and $105k
9) Between $105k and $107k
10) Between $107k and $109k
11) Between $109k and $111k
12) Between $111k and $113k
13) Between $113k and $115k
14) Between $115k and $117k
15) Between $117k and $119k
16) Between $119k and $121k
17) Above $121k
The more options that I give, then the lower percentage assignment of each, and the more likely that none of the scenarios holds a majority, yet there could be some price ranges that are considered to be more probable than others.
It's just a strange feeling of discontent that I currently have, but maybe it will go away in a day or two.
Who knows, maybe it is because of a nagging dip despite of tremendous bullishness or something else entirely.
If we zoom out, we have not had very many major corrections since our low of $74,434 in early April, so even with various kinds of bullish news happenings, it still can become difficult to have BTC prices go sraight up without various corrections along the way. Yeah, sure, we all get excited when we cross into new ATH prices, yet we cannot expect those to be ongoingly UP without some pauses along the way, and even pauses that seem contrary to the expectations of the more bullish of the HODLers.. also the Blackrock ETF has ONLY had one negative inflow day since April 9th, also.. so even if there have been various ups and downs along the way, the Blackrock ETF (through their clients) is not afraid to continue to accumulate coins.. I doubt that our Uppity trend is changing, even if we might be experiencing some temporary pausing and seeming uncertainties.
I did a quick perusal of my own buy/sell orders, and largely I have had not had any buy orders fill in the last two months either, they have just been sell order after sell order filling (except the last day I had a buy order fill), and the reason for that is because the BTC price has hardly dipped in the past two months.
Do I give a shit about only having sell orders filling and no buy orders filling? Hardly. You already know that I have made a conclusion that I have too many bitcoin. Accordingly, I am selling from the overaccumulated amount, and my whole system is set up for the possibility that the BTC price just goes straight to $350k and higher without any corrections.. yet inevitably there are going to be corrections along the way, yet my system assumes no corrections along the way.. and I have set the sell amounts in such a way that I am o.k. with the worse case (or would it be best case?) scenario of ONLY up and no corrections along the way.