Isnt that 2.5x on other miners reward that small?
If we do base up on the overall chance or odds for other miners to mine the said block will be 38.12%
Then i would usually be sticking with foundry and antpool or even with viaBTC on which the profitability will be nice.
For those who do want to check out:
https://mempool.space/miningHey Koadharber, it is nice catch

You are right the fair odds for 38.12% hashrate actually is 2.62
https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html thus the value bet currently is on the top 3 miners
Within our API for Casinos we have realtime hashrate and respectively realtime odds however internally within the team we have some arguments in general. Should the odds match 100% with the hashdata or sometimes some bets to have a little bit more "value". Me personally i am triggered to bet on some football game when i notice a team has a bigger chance that the bookie has predicted while if it is fair odds i would just pass the game

Will be happy to hear your opinion on that.