Retail inflows and outflows tend to define the trend — mostly because they stick to the DCA strategy.
But in reality, most of them don’t average down during losses. Instead, they prefer buying into new coins when the market is pumping.
For example, in 2024, retail participation surged by 242% compared to the crypto winter period.
Right now, we’re just going sideways. So when will the next trend emerge? That depends on institutional investors.
They currently control around 5% of Bitcoin’s supply. If that number goes up, so will the price.
Bottom line: in this cycle — and likely in the next one too — institutional capital will be the main driver.
Institutional money really is the main driver here, it's because when they buy, they are buying in billions and they become rather a passive investor unlike most of retailer that sometime get swayed by market trend.
Aside from that, liquidity from retailer getting fragmented into shitcoin where it's essentially pvp with all the rugs all the while the institutional investors keep accumulating bitcoin.
Now the bitcoin goes to institutional player and the retailer are mostly sidelined, either get rekt with shitcoin or dumping when there's correction to the support not too long ago.