A few months ago, I came across a post that claimed that the world of risk, that is, stock markets and sports and non-sports betting platforms, is counter-intuitive. This means that you can’t rely on intuition there, but you have to rely on counter-intuition. I must admit, that was the first time I heard the term counter-intuition. This term was first used by Russian trader Alexander Silaev. However, I would like to talk about counter-intuition in relation to sports betting. Do you admit the existence of the term counter-intuition in relation to sports betting? If you ask me what it is, I will answer that it is a set of rules that limits decision-making based on the “unconscious principle”. But intuition is an unconscious principle, in which you cannot clearly tell yourself on what basis you made a bet.
I have not heard the word “counter-intuition” before either. However, I think the term makes sense. Let’s say that intuition really doesn’t work in the stock market and in gambling.
However, we know that most people use their intuition in trading and gambling. We also know that market trends are opposite to what most market participants expect. From this, we can conclude that to be successful in trading and gambling, we need “counter-intuition”.
We must formulate and identify the decisions we would make if we relied on our intuition. And then we must make the exact opposite decisions. That’s what it means to use “counter-intuition”!