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You make a solid point, and I see the logic. BTC doesn’t usually just climb and range right at the top it often overshoots, corrects 8–10% or more, and then consolidates below the high.
In my view, there is still a chance we see some short term sideways movement in that $119k–$123k range, especially if momentum cools. But realistically, a move into the mid-$130ks before any proper consolidation makes more sense based what I’ve studied on how BTC has behaved in past cycles.
Just how I see it for now, always open to being proven wrong or right by the market. lol
In regards to bitcoin, my own philosophy and practice has been to attempt to prepare psychologically and financially for a variety of scenarios, yet the kind of preparation is also going to differ depending on if I am in my accumulation phase, my maintenance phase or my liquidation (or sustainable withdrawal) phase.
I don't tend to let my short-term expectations materially guide what I do, and so I might only make some small tweaks in regards to expectations, but mostly I just stick with my plan, so if I am accumulating then I am just buying regularly no matter what with perhaps some attempt to tailor to buy on dips.
I mostly got through my accumulation phase between late 2013 and early 2017, and so my most serious accumulation was until about late 2015, and so I was transitioning between accumulation phase and maintenance stage between late 2015 and early 2017, and probably I could say that I was in my maintenance stage between early 2017 until late 2022... In maintenance stage, I sell on the way up (such as less than 10% for every doubling of the price) and I structure buys on the way down with the proceeds of the sales.. which i would characterize as price based sustainable withdrawal.
Since about late 2022, I started some time-based sustainable withdrawal with right around 1/5 of my BTC stash. I have been considering some further time-based sustainable withdrawal with a larger portion of my BTC stash, but whatever I am doing is fairly whimpy withdrawal rather than aggressive withdrawal, so it likely only adds up to withdrawing less than 1% of my BTC stash per year.. yet I am pretty sure that my BTC stash size is not even shrinking by 1% per year, since the time-based sustainable withdrawal is combined with price based sustainable withdraw that involves buy backs.
So far my system application and my formulas for selling versus buying do not realy change very much based on short-term BTC price moves, yet at the same time, I have been contemplating some possible price locations that I might want to consider selling more BTC between here and $450k, in the event that we might go to $450k - even though I already have sell orders set up to $360k-ish.. and I have enough BTC already in place on exchanges to put the remaining BTC (in accordance with my current expected formulations) up to $450k-ish. My larger sell orders that I already set (right around double the usual BTC amounts) are currently right around $120k, $135k, $170k, $245k, $280k, $360k and $430k.
Over the years, I trying to set my buy and/or sell orders in such ways that I remain emotionally neutral about short term questions about whether they fill or not, while at the same time, I presume ongoing volatility and even extremes in volatility in both price directions, while retaining discretion in regards to the amounts and the increments in either direction. Over the years, there have been times, such as mid-to-late 2022 (and various other times) in which I ran out of money when the BTC price was going down, so I have continued to try to bolster my systems so that I never run out of money, which tend to be approximations, since there are desires to mostly keep most of my value in bitcoin since my assumptions continue to be that my money is better off retained in bitcoin rather than in cash (don't get me wrong, I have some other non-bitcoin investments too), so even if I take a snap shot right now, my bitcoin related cash is in the ballpark of less than 2% of the spot price value of my BTC (or alternatively less than 4% of the 200-WMA valuation of my BTC), so I am not buying and selling large amounts of cash relatively to the whole size of my bitcoin holdings... yet I monitor these balances from time to time to consider whether I need to tweak the balances, and the justifications to tweak or not are mostly in regards to my needs (rather than in terms of the BTC price).. and considering if I need more cash in reserves or if I might feel that I have too much cash in reserves.
So top 30
and still over 100k for 6 days of June.
its a big deal if we can can continue at 100k plus.
it also allows you to add more coin with dca.
Sure there are guys who are still in their BTC accumulation phase, yet I would think that there are also a lot of guys who have been in bitcoin a couple of cycles or more who may well might either reached or come close to reaching overaccumulation status, so they may well not be still in the process of accumulating bitcoin.
Sure, if guys are still accumulating bitcoin, they likely would accumulate at any price, even though surely we likely realize that if guys are starting to get close to over accumulation status, then they might be accumulating by buying the dip rather than persistently, consistently, regularly, ongoingly and perhaps aggressively accumulating bitcoin through buying bitcoin at any price.