For a large majority of my time in bitcoin, I have been considering 4 years as a minimum investment timeline, and if people invest less than 4 years then they are trading rather than investing, and sure, even 4 years might not guarantee profits.. but at least a minimum of 4 years can provide a framework for someone who is not sure about his timeline to consider whether bitcoin is a good investment for him, such as someone who might be in his 70s, he might have some ballpark ideas that he may well need the money within a certain amount of time, such as 4-10 years, but then he is not sure, but he still might be o.k. with locking up his money for at least 4 years, even though he does not exactly know when he might need it.
It's your personal experience that matches with what data shows for the majority of Bitcoin investors but anyway I am thankful for your shared information that is truly helpful not only for me but also the others.
The HODL Camp map shows nearly the same information as what you shared.
https://hodl.camp/This map provides a valuable information of the HOLD line with a minimum hodling period of 5 years and 1 month. This recommended hodl time is not considerable different to your suggested one of 4 years.
One of the criticisms of the hold.camp information is that it assumes lump sum investing.. and it is ONLY measuring from certain points that folks are investing and then measuring that portion.
Many folks are not in a very good position to just lump sum invest into bitcoin, and it is also not very advisable to lump sum invest into bitcoin without following through with ongoing DCA and/or buying on the dip, so in many ways that DCAer is going to have better results because he keeps buying as money comes available to him.
If a person is buying on a very regular basis, such as weekly, then he will not end up buying all of his BTC at the top, and he also will not end up buying at the bottom, either, so as long as the BTC price is tending to go upwards, after 4 years he is quite likely to be decently in profits.. .which the 200-WMA can also serve as a kind of guideline where a person might have had been if he had been consistently and regularly buying bitcoin for 4 years, then his average BTC price is likely to end up being around where the 200-WMA is yet an overwhelming majority of the time, the spot price tends to be at least 25% higher than the 200-WMA.. even though there have also been times in which the BTC spot price is below the 200-WMA, yet even historically, it has tended to be a good idea to continue to buy bitcoin, and surely if a person has not stacked enough bitcoin after 4 years, then surely he may well end up stacking for 8 years rather than 4 years, and then his cost per BTC would be around the 400-WMA rather than the 200-WMA.
So then if a person spends 8 years or more stacking bitcoin, then he can figure out where he is at with his BTC stash and to figure out if he has enough bitcoin yet or not, and likely his level of aggressiveness might contribute to the results of whether or not he had ended up accumulating enough bitcoin after 8 years or if he might still need to continue to accumulating bitcoin, and surely another factor does have to do with discretionary income, and if people do not have a lot of discretionary income then it is likely going to take them longer to reach an accumulation level in which they can conclude that they have enough bitcoin or more than enough, and some people might end up having to take 15-20 years or more to build their bitcoin stash to a high enough level in order to conclude that they have enough bitcoin or more than enough bitcoin.
It’s honestly crazy and a bit funny too how my whole view on Bitcoin has changed since I joined this forum. Before now, I was just kind of winging it. I would buy randomly, skip dips, chase green candles sometimes, and I really thought I was doing something. But man, this forum and also Buy the Dip, and HODL! thread right here? It flipped everything for me.
I actually learnt how to accumulate properly from this forum. Before, I didn’t even know what real consistency in stacking looked like. Now, I have got a plan. I DCA with intention. And here’s the funny part whenever I try to cheat my own plan, like delay a buy or think “maybe I’ll skip this week,” I legit don’t have peace of mind lol. It’s like my gut knows I am playing myself, and I start feeling off immediately. Sounds silly, but it’s the truth.
This subject gave me more than just strategy, it gave me perspective. Like, real perspective. Seeing people share their thoughts, ideas and reasons for holding has been so eye-opening. I have read some comments here that literally made me pause and rethink my whole approach. Some of y’all have no idea how much your words have helped people like me silently grow.
Right now, I’m starting to imagine a better version of myself in a few years. A version that stayed focused. That didn’t panic. That kept showing up. That version isn’t just wealthier, it’s wiser, calmer, and stronger. All because of lessons I’m picking up right here.
So yeah, this forum and subject is more than just a slogan. Buy the Dip and HODL has become a mindset. A principle. A daily reminder that Bitcoin is a long game, and I’m here for it, through every dip and every run.
Big love to everyone who contributes here. Even when it seems like you’re just typing into the void trust me, someone is reading it. Someone is learning. Someone is changing.
Bitcoin is the future, And the future is already here. Keep stacking, Keep holding and Keep believing……
Holy fucking shit kanftka.
Actions speak louder than words, so how the fuck would you be able to really put matters into proper practice after merely having a little over a month on the forum? That makes no sense.
You might want to be more realistic in your incorporation of facts into your depiction of events, and exaggeration (and/or pandering) is also not a good characteristic.
Generally the majority of people do not understand the word risk at all, they just understand it in a superficial literary sense of its definition. Investing in Bitcoin can be considered risky
Upon any investment made, there lies a percentage of risk attached, however, this should not be the reason for us to arrive at a conclusion that everything about bitcoin investment is full of risk, instead the problem here is how people got themselves into a bad shape and expect that all things should be alright, if you don't make a wrong move, then you're likely to be halfway safe, then when you're being profitable by your investment, then you break even from the investment.
Everyone should be aware of the risks they face on the investments they make but there are goals they want to achieve so that the risks are slightly set aside but that is not always true because basically the risk must be understood so that we can be careful in every step we take in investing.
In all investments there is a risk, that must be understood and the level of risk will be proportional to the potential profit obtained but we need to understand this so that there is a lot of learning that we do to minimize the risk.
by investing with your discretionary income for a long-term goal and hodli. You are to also set up emergency funds as you have started your bitcoin investment so that whenever a real emergency hits you during your accumulation journey, you don't need to sell part of your bitcoin but use your emergency funds. You should also not sell during your way up to back at the dip, just only keep accumulating till you reach your bitcoin target. Don't invest with the amount of money that you cannot afford to lose and keep your bitcoin in a self-custody wallet where only you have the keys.
I would suggest that there are various ways that anyone should be able to manage their risk by both position size and paying attention to building their cashflow management systems, that includes back up funds, like you mentioned.
I would not characterize investing into bitcoin to be easy, even if all of the skills are within core competencies of an overwhelming majority of people.. .as long as they either have a discretionary income or they are able to figure out how to get a discretionary income by increasing income and/or decreasing expenses.
This is not true maybe is based on your own understanding, accepting that Bitcoin is not risk free is supposed to make any one make good investment decisions and manage their risk, there is no investment that is risk free in the world including Bitcoin investment, I don't see any wrong talking about it as not a risk free investment.
All investments do have risks because in this world there is no job that is free from risk so everyone must be able to understand the risks before doing certain jobs including investing in Bitcoin. But apart from all that, everyone also needs to know that the level of profit that can be obtained through Bitcoin investment is also not a little which can even beat the level of risk that exists in it.
For example, someone who has bought Bitcoin but he has not held it for long but has experienced a minus due to the price drop, but on the one hand the person can still maintain the Bitcoin he has for his future investment, it still cannot be considered a loss because the person is still able to manage the risk and his emotions not to let go of Bitcoin in conditions like the one I exemplified.
I think that a lot of what you are suggesting relates to managing bitcoin position size, and the skills and/or the knowledge of the risks do not need to be known in advance in order for anyone to get started investing into bitcoin. Anyone should be able to get started investing into bitcoin with the ONLY criteria being that they have a discretionary income, and the more uncertain or scared they are about investing into bitcoin, then the more of a whimpy start that they would take and the more confident and/or bullish they are, then the more aggressive that they would be, and they can learn how to go from being whimpy to being aggressive as they are figuring out how to make sure that they have good cashflow management systems in place.