What macro conditions would need to be in place for BTC to truly act like a hedge — and not a high-beta risk asset?
The price of Bitcoin traditionally goes high after every four years. If your country is going through inflation, it would be better to convert your fiat to Bitcoin and just hodl for four years and above.
It is true that looking at the past, it is not wrong to say that bitcoin is cyclical, but there is no guarantee that it will always repeat that pattern consistently and that has become tradition.
The cycle can be broken at any time like in this cycle Bitcoin reached ATH before halving which has never happened before. Things have changed a lot and will change even more in the future as bitcoin becomes more popular, influenced by macro news...
If someone wants to invest and make profit. It should be noted that this process can happen faster or slower and depends on many factors, don't think that holding for 4 years will definitely bring profit.