Yup. You're right and that's why I said that it's only possible in an ideal world. I also want to also want to note that even if you do deep and insane analysis  before placing your bets, you can still lose. As a matter of fact, you can lose often especially if it's not your day. The major difference between blindly picking favorites and backing it up with substantial research/analysis is that your chances of winning goes up exponentially when you do analysis.

For me, blindly picking favorites is just a fun experiment but when it's time to be serious with my bet, I do my homework (aka analysis).