Re: Knowledgeable sports bettor vs bettor merely going with favorite
⭐ Merited by libert19 (1)
Edit: So many people are misunderstanding the word, 'favorite' here. What I meant here is oddmaker's favorite. Suppose, a competition is held between two teams 'A' and 'B' with odds 1.2 for former and 2.0 for latter, then former is favorite, and bettor can bet on this favorite without having iota of knowledge about sports itself and still likely win the bet.
Well, first thing...
Any sports gambler who would see those bets and those odds would stay away from it!
Odds of 1.2, probability = 1/1.2 = 83.33%
Odds of 2.0, probability = 1/2.0 = 50%
The bookie has a margin of 33%, which would be just ridiculous.
Far more likely are some like 1.25 and 3.5 or 1.20 and 4, which both land in the 8-10% edge.
No serious gambler would take this, so this is a perfect example of actually using knowledge!
Anyhow, why talk assumptions when you have real data here: Betting experiment with low odds on football main leagues!
I stopped after 20 rounds with these results:
Quote
Total after 20 rounds and 194 games
- Individual bets balance +5.62
- Multiplier balance +16.58
- Individual bets balance +5.62
- Multiplier balance +16.58