Of course, we likely realize with the latest tendencies for governments, institutions and even already rich individuals to project policies and/or practices in which they will be trying to hoard large quantities of BTC, it then becomes even way lower of an average that individual normies are even able to accumulate.. even though sure, somewhere between 0.002 BTC (200,000 satoshis) and 1 BTC (100,000,000 satoshis) does seem reasonable, even though an overwhelming majority of normies are going to have to give up on accumulating a whole BTC, since it going to be quite difficult to accumulate a whole BTC, even the guy who is able to project an investment of $200 per week for the next 10 years, he may well ONLY be able to accumulate half of a BTC, if he starts right now.  $200 worth of BTC per week would result in $104k invested over 10 years.

I am fairly confidence that the average cost per BTC is going to end up being a lot more than $104k over the next 10 years, so a guy investing $200 per week may well ONLY be able to accumulate somewhere in the ballpark of 0.4BTC (40 million satoshis at best), and sure there are ways around it to front load the investment or somehow be able to invest more than $200 per week, yet guys have to still attempt to be realistic in terms of their own budgets, and some guys have a whole hell of a lot of difficulties imagining an ability to garner up enough cash to be able to buy $200 worth of bitcoin every week for the next 10 years.

Don't get me wrong, I am repeating that guys should do what they can in term of their own cashflow and cashflow management limitations... so anyone who is trying to accumulate bitcoin with as much aggressiveness as he can right now, even if he is ONLY able to buy $10 to $50 per week, he is likely to be better off by buying and accumulating bitcoin rather than if he did not even try.


Probably not, unless you are interested in the dynamic that the BTC price might go up, or alternatively it might not go up (which you know what that means?  or do you?)

Let me start over.  This is not going well.

Within BTC prices, it could go up, or it could go down or it might go sideways.

There are a lot of folk speculating that there are good chances that the BTC price is going up.  That is why sentiment towards UPpity seems fairly strong right now.

I thought that they used to call it bitcoin fear and greed, but now they are calling it "crypto fear and greed" index.


https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/

Of course, the BTC price could go down, but we have already been down, yet sure there are some big players who like to flush out as many coins as they can from retail (shake trees), and it seems to work, until it doesn't so it is not bad to see some of those shakers getting reckt when it finally happens.

Sideways is one of those kinds of things that really do not tend to happen, especially at the Upper end of the range, even though I could see several fake outs, which could later end up being characterized as a kind of sideways that ended up happening... even though they don't really happen.

I know.  I am probable not telling you anything new, so sure, just go back to sleep for a while, and perhaps something more exciting might happen at some point...

What would you consider exciting?  Supra $130k?  or sub $90k? or something else?

I know that any of us longer term bitcoiners can start to feel some senses of CCCCCiiiiiiiittttttttttteeeee..... even within price ranges that are not much greater than our previous price ranges, and I am not going to deny some senses of citedness.


I could be wrong, yet I doubt that vapourminer could fairly be characterized as a trader.. even though he likely is not opposed to selling some bitcoin as the price is going up... but yeah, there are not too many of us who seem to be looking for exact tops or trying to trade exact tops (except maybe LFC, and perhaps some of our quasi-closeted traders)... though surely there likely is still some decent selling going on on the way up. .without really trying to figure out exact ranges for the top.. . but yeah, maybe vapourminer and some others can describe if they are planning any higher level sales in this particular run that we are expecting, since some guys likely just sell some extra corn, here and there along the way.


I am not going to deny that would be interesting.  I listened to several years of Joe Rogan, until he went to Spotify, but then when he came back from Spotify, I found that I just could not listen to all of his episodes, so i just listen to some of them..and surely Saylor would be a good one, if he were to end up going on there.


That is what I would say (or am thinking).

I would not be completely surprised by such a thing, even though it seems that there have been enough of those "opportunities for dip buyers" to get in or to buy back the too many coins that they sold... and at some point, they aren't going to be able to either get in at those sub $100k prices or to buy back whatever (too many) bitcoin that they already sold.


My point in the above post relates more to claims that it is difficult to get the 200-WMA to move quickly in either direction, even though the 200-WMA ongoingly trends upwardly, and yeah, I love the stability and the sideways of the 200-WMA, and that is why I have created formulas to conceptualize bitcoin values based on the 200-WMA instead of BTC spot prices..... and so maybe I get worked up when folks try to treat spot price as if it were the same thing, and BTC spot prices are all over the fucking place on an ongoing basis, so even though BTC spot prices relate back to the 200-WMA, the 200-WMA smooths out all of that ongoing violence and shows us some ways to plan our lives around bitcoin in terms of 200-WMA and not spot prices.

But yeah of course, if we buy or sell BTC, we will be engaging in such buying/selling of our BTC in terms of BTC spot prices and not the 200-WMA, yet I still think that we can consider our valuation of our bitcoin in terms of the 200-WMA rather than spot price.

In regards to the sideways expectations of BTC spot prices, rather than the 200-WMA, I just think that sideways of BTC spot prices is not something that we can expect.. especially the way that you had been describing them largely at the top of the range.

Sure, bitcoin is going to do whatever it is going to do, and sure, it is possible that bitcoin gets tamed into some kind of a more mature and/or less volatile asset, but it just does not seem likely to be happening any time soon with ongoing new adoption and still a large ass addressable market..

Yeah, from time to time we get lulled into non-violence of BTC spot price moves, yet even if the BTC spot prices end up going up and up and up, it ends up entering into ranges of over-exuberance where the price cannot be supported any longer.

Similar things are true within current BTC price dynamics.. Yeah, maybe we can get some sideways here and there along the way, yet I would even claim that our move up from $69k to $109k between November and January was hardly sideways and then our correction down to $74k between late January and early April was hardly sideways and since early April we have come back up to $112k, which also is hardly sideways, so sure, sideways could end up happening, but I don't consider sideways to be too likely... Sideways would be a pretty decently large minority bet... so i don't see any reason to be either expecting or hoping for sideways, even though sure, it could happen... but it probably won't... by the way you initially said sideways between $119 to $123k, and then you increased your expected (or hoped for range of $120k to $132k-ish.    Sure your range for your sideways got a bit bigger, so it does increase the likelihood of the range happening to be greater when the range is higher.. yet you just seem to be living in a bit of a fantasy land when you are creating such narrow expectations (hopes) rather than going with the flow and even potentially setting yourself up as a bit more of a bitcoin HODLer rather than a trader, and sure your revised scenario could end up happening and you can say that "I told you so," but why set yourself up for disappointment to be having hopes for minority-case scenarios.

And, maybe you say that I am the one setting myself up for disappointment, yet anything that I do tends to be a hedge that it I might happen or might not.. and yeah, maybe I should revise my late 2021 numbers.. but I think that I already communicated the idea of creating such numbers, which was my main point rather than getting caught up so much in regards to what my numbers feel like at this particular moment... even though I don't completely mind going through such number assigning process.