Post
Topic
Board Gambling discussion
Re: Recency bias
by
m2017
on 17/06/2025, 14:35:39 UTC
In watching sports, it is very common for fans to have recency bias especially if fans are new. They might not have watched certain important events so they end up only believing what they have witnessed from recently. If a team wins the latest match, fans might think they are already at the best form of their careers.

In sports betting, this can hinder you from making rational decisions. Sometimes, people fall for short clips cut specifically to make an athlete look good or cool. This is very common on reels or tiktok. How would you combat recency bias? Or do you even believe that recency bias is a thing? or do you believe a team or athlete is only as good as their latest match?
Of course, there are different types of bias in gambling. For example, it occurs in fans of certain teams, which prevents them from making rational bets that are not based on personal sympathy for their team.

Bias to novelty also exists, that is, it is an assessment (only partial) of a team or athlete based on the last successful match (for example). In fact, this is equivalent to ignoring full statistics, which prevents an objective analysis of the situation.

How to combat bias? Very simple: collect statistical data about the team over a long period of time. For example, in football, there are tournament tables for this (the statistics have already been collected).

The last match doesn't allow to objectively assess the state of the team or athlete. After all, the non-linearity of the performance of teams and athletes also exists. That is, a team or athlete can perform poorly from time to time.