I have no account on Polymarket but if I had one I probably would side with the prediction that the US will not get into a military action against Iran. I think Trump will not go into an expensive war that is not necessary at this point.

But the US not getting into direct action against Iran does not mean they are not part of all this. Israel is like its proxy and I do not believe that Israel just decides on its own to make big military decisions that would cause chaos in the middle eastern region.