I totally agree with you because there is no amount of knowledge a newbie we have that he or she won't be drive or shaked by market fluctuation because they are still fresh to the game.
What do you think makes someone a newbie? It's mostly ignorance or lack of deep knowledge about something, if an individual in Bitcoin investment knows all it takes to invest and hold for a very long time, guy that person is no longer a newbie, because he has all the required knowledge to succeed.
So wether a person is just starting to invest in Bitcoin or not, he will never be shaken by market fluctuation when he knows it all on how Bitcoin operate generally.
You are right. If a person has the right knowledge, the right knowledge of the strategy inside him, then he will never be afraid of the market going up and down.
Since he has the ability to analyze the market completely, he can analyze it correctly with his maximum knowledge and invest correctly for a short time or a long time . Although he loses some amount of his money, he has the right knowledge and ideas to recover his money. So I think for a professional investor, no matter what the market is like, he will not be afraid of being in the market, but he can continue to invest with his own knowledge.
Trying to understand the price movement of bitcoin and analyzing the market is not important for a long term investor because he is only to be buying bitcoin continuously with DCA for 4-10 years and above without selling.
It's impossible to understand the price movement of bitcoin and only traders stress themselves on doing this because they feel that they can outsmart the market but it always turns out that the market will outsmart them in the long run and they will incur losses. This is why a new investor shouldn't bother about investing in a short-term because it will lead you to losses since bitcoin investment is a long-term asset and not a get rich quick scheme.
Your major focus is to keep your bitcoin accumulation journey ongoing regularly, consistently and persistently overtime and if possible aggressively to enable reach your bitcoin target faster with DCA method. Work on your increasing your income so that you can have a good size of discretionary income and increase your DCA amount.
Yes, you are right. If someone had invested in Bitcoin using the DCA method after meeting their necessary expenses, then no matter at what price they bought Bitcoin, the average price of their Bitcoin would have been much lower than the current Bitcoin price.
If we do a calculation from 2020 to 2024, we will see-
The average price of Bitcoin in 2020 was-
About $11500
Then if he invested $100 in Bitcoin every month, he could buy things that year = (100×12)÷11500
= 0.10435 BTC (approx.)
The average price of Bitcoin in 2021 was-
About $47000
Then if he invested $100 in Bitcoin every month, he could buy things that year=(100×12)÷47000
= 0.02553 BTC (approx.)
The average price of Bitcoin in 2022 was-
About $28000
Then if he invested $100 in Bitcoin every month, he could buy things that year= (100×12)÷28000
=0.04286 BTC (approx.)
The average price of Bitcoin in 2023 was-
About $29000
Then if he invested $100 in Bitcoin every month, he could buy the subject that year= (100×12)÷29000
=0.04138 BTC (approx.)
The average price of Bitcoin in 2024 was-
About $52100
Then if he invested $100 in Bitcoin every month, he could buy the subject that year= (100×12)÷52100
= 0.02303 BTC (approx.)
The total Bitcoin he could buy in these five years= (0.10435+0.02553+0.04286+0.04138+0.02303)
= 0.23715 BTC
Total cost to buy 0.23715 Bitcoin = $6000
Current price of 0.23715 Bitcoin = $24900
That is, if he were to liquidate his Bitcoin holdings at the present time, he would still have made a profit of (24900÷6000) = 4.15 times his invested amount
Therefore, it is better to always invest in Bitcoin using the DCA method rather than waiting for the price of Bitcoin to decrease.