You're not connecting imaginary dots, you're looking at the new reality.
Bitcoin is chained to Wall Street now, thanks to the ETFs. So yeah, when the US stock market sneezes from tariff news or Fed whispers, Bitcoin catches a cold... or a rocket ride.
And you're dead on about being a day late. The institutional money and the D.C. insiders front-run every major announcement. They're not pumping and dumping on vibes anymore; they're trading on macro policy. We're just the plankton eating their leftovers.