Is BTC still mainly driven by trader activity and technical patterns, or are we seeing a shift where global fundamental events - like wars and diplomacy - are steering the market?
"Global fundamental events" have driven the Bitcoin price for a long while now, not always, but important events often were probably an influence. I think the shift came with the COVID dip, before most Bitcoin price movements were caused by "internal" problems (i.e. bullish if some major company accepted Bitcoin, and bearish when there was a ban or a exchange bankruptcy) and of course cyclic behavior.
It is also very likely that the Bitcoin price tends to react, since about 2020, in a similar way to external events than the stock market. The connection lies probably in the influence of Central Bank interest rates on the attractivity of risky assets like stocks and Bitcoin.
The change I consider more important in recent times is that Bitcoin doesn't overreact anymore to these events: it reacts with similar or even weaker price swings than the North American stock market, for example. The exception are of course events which influence the Bitcoin market specifically, like political developments enabling the creation of strategic reserves.
What do yourself think about it?
