Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
Now you seem to be saying "up before down," so why say it? Why make proclamations that are opposite? Maybe you are wanting to say both, but still neither is convincing except to say that we could have a break out in either direction, and maybe up has odds that are slightly greater than down, since we are in a bull market.
Your part about our bullmarket dragging out into mid-2026 seems to completely ignore LFC's tried and true conceptualization of a 2025 bull market that is mostly wrapping up in either 3rd quarter or at latest 4th quarter of 2025.
Personally, I have no problem acknowledging that cycles still exist and mostly fall within their historical 4 year timeframes, while at the same time retaining enough statistical variance (or is it "probability variance"?) that they do not need to fall exactly within historical 4-year timeframes in order to still be largely continuing to follow such 4-year patterns that involve human behavior and no real abilities to mathematically pin down exactly when the over-exuberance might end up occurring that results in buy support no longer being strong enough to be able to prevent the BTC price from gravitating downwardly.
By the way, BALIK, I hate to send you an smerit for saying nearly exactly the opposite from your earlier post, but I couldn't help myself... even though I remain a bit bothered by the seeming inconsistencies..... perhaps since you seem to be proclaiming consistency as one of your values within at least one of the posts.. .. but then, again, what else is new around these here parts?? ?? Guys, including but not necessarily limited to, yours truly, sometimes are "all over the place"... It is not like forum threads like this one need to rise to the level of scholarly prestige (analysis), especially since frequently there are a lot of things going on that may well affect BTC price dynamics that touch on a lot of areas of life.. including that at any given time, all of the ducks seem to be lined up to go in one direction, and then the opposite ends up happening..
Your part about our bullmarket dragging out into mid-2026 seems to completely ignore LFC's tried and true conceptualization of a 2025 bull market that is mostly wrapping up in either 3rd quarter or at latest 4th quarter of 2025.
Personally, I have no problem acknowledging that cycles still exist and mostly fall within their historical 4 year timeframes, while at the same time retaining enough statistical variance (or is it "probability variance"?) that they do not need to fall exactly within historical 4-year timeframes in order to still be largely continuing to follow such 4-year patterns that involve human behavior and no real abilities to mathematically pin down exactly when the over-exuberance might end up occurring that results in buy support no longer being strong enough to be able to prevent the BTC price from gravitating downwardly.
By the way, BALIK, I hate to send you an smerit for saying nearly exactly the opposite from your earlier post, but I couldn't help myself... even though I remain a bit bothered by the seeming inconsistencies..... perhaps since you seem to be proclaiming consistency as one of your values within at least one of the posts.. .. but then, again, what else is new around these here parts?? ?? Guys, including but not necessarily limited to, yours truly, sometimes are "all over the place"... It is not like forum threads like this one need to rise to the level of scholarly prestige (analysis), especially since frequently there are a lot of things going on that may well affect BTC price dynamics that touch on a lot of areas of life.. including that at any given time, all of the ducks seem to be lined up to go in one direction, and then the opposite ends up happening..
Haha, fair call JayJuanGee. It is true I might have sounded like I was conjuring both "up before down" and "down before up" vibes. But that is kind of the game, isn't it? It is rare to see Bitcoin cycle play out clean. What I am leaning into is that macro indication, accumulation, longterm hodlers, low latency, all are suggesting we are not in the blowoff top zone so far. I totally get LFC's Q3-Q4 2025 argument. Just saying there is always room for divergence, could stretch, could snap.
And consistency? I really aim for it, but hey, we are all surfers in this chaos.
