In recent months, I have been trying to consider and reconsider my own views in regards to short term, medium term and/or long term targets that guys might have, and surely one thing is figuring out how more people might be able to treat bitcoin more seriously in terms of thinking about it as an investment rather than as a trade, but then another thing is figuring out what goals might be reasonable, given the fact that so many of us are starting to come around to recognizing that bitcoin is amongst the best of pristine assets, if not the best of pristine assets.

So if so many of us start to recognize and/or appreciate bitcoin as being such a pristine asset, then it hardly makes any sense to plan to trade in and out of it, even if our timeline might be trading in 10 years or longer (like you suggested, planning to enter into a BTC selling practice 10 years or more down the road).

Even if it might seem short-sighted to get into bitcoin and then to have a plan that involves getting out of bitcoin, it becomes difficult to suggest how guys should think about their involvement in bitcoin when it comes to various goals that they might set, even if we might be able to see that even their plans to follow such goals might seem to be devolving into a trading rather than an investing way of looking at bitcoin.

Many of us also recognize and appreciate that some folks might have consumption and/or investment goals related to their bitcoin that might even be shorter than 10 years, but then maybe somewhat adequately longer than 4 years.. but at the same time, some guys strive to play bitcoin price waves too, which might result in short term profits.. but at the same time might also potentially result in failure to sufficiently balance bitcoin's investment attributes. which surely is risky, even if sometimes they are able to achieve what seems to be short-term profits.


I hate to have to argue this point again, which is that it is possible to reach a point of overaccumulation, so if you are proclaiming that either you can never sell your bitcoin or that you ongoingly need to accumulate bitcoin, then you are likely failing/refusing to adequately understand bitcoin as it currently is and/or how to potentially deal with bitcoin in the future, including that ongoing accumulation of bitcoin is likely not as necessary as you are supposing it to be.


Ok.  So you seem to be acknowledging that a person might achieve enough bitcoin, yet you are still not allowing a person to sell any of his bitcoin based on some artificial presumptions that might even be devolving into your placing your own values on other people?

Do we need an example here?

I have given so many examples of reaching overaccumulation in the past.. and there surely seems to be a lot of justification for guys to figure out ways that they might start to include either price based sustainable withdrawal and/or time-based sustainable withdrawal.. .. and sustainable withdrawal involves selling and does not necessarily include continuing to buy bitcoin.. even though buying bitcoin could still be done as an option.. but having an option means that it is within personal discretion to do.. so we seem to be overly imposing on others if we suggest that they need to continue to buy bitcoin.

Even a guy who merely accumulated around 15% of his income for the past 9-ish years may well have had reached overaccumulation status and may well feel that he can sustainably live off of his bitcoin based on such overaccumulation status... He may well believe that he never has to ever buy another bitcoin ever again.

Let's look at such a situation.. and let's say that a guy had been earning right around $30k per year, and 9 years ago, he decided that he was going to invest right around 15% of his income into bitcoin, so he started to buy right around $100 per week into bitcoin, which in the last 9 years resulted in his investing right around $47k into bitcoin and accumulating right around 12 BTC.

If such hypothetical guy had been investing right around $5,200 per year into bitcoin, that means that he was largely living off of the remaining $24,800.

Surely if he had accumulated 12 BTC, then currently, that 12 BTC would be worth right about $589k based on the 200-WMA value and right about $1.3 million based on current spot prices.  I would suggest that based on the 200-WMA, the guy would be in a solid position to be able to sustainably withdraw $59k per year and even to adjust that amount upwardly by 7% each year.. on a perpetual basis.

So largely the guy is more than doubling his current income without having to work another day in his life - beyond whatever measures that he might need to take in order to guard his BTC stash and employ whatever accounting measures in order to assure that he is not overly withdrawing from his BTC stash.

You can proclaim that such guy needs to continue accumulating bitcoin, but he does not. In the scenario that I outlined, his bitcoin is appreciating faster than the rate that he is withdrawing it, and there are even ways that he can adjust his withdrawal rate downward in circumstances that his BTC might no longer be appreciating faster than his withdrawal rate... and I even outlined a situation where the guy is able to double his income from his current rate, and sure you might argue that it is not enough and the guy wants more.. but that is not necessarily true to assume that people can never be satisfied in regards to having enough.. There are likely some guys who need more and other guys who need less, yet in the end, each person should be able to sufficiently figure out from his own perspective how much he wants/needs and the extent to which he has enough and/or more than enough.


Of course, each person needs to attempt to account for his various income flows and the extent to which he has income flows that are something that he can count on, and even back up sources.

Surely, I understand the needs that any of us have in regards to having back up funding, so even if we might want to presume an ability to earn an income of $59k, we might purposefully choose to withdraw at a lower rate, such as $40k or even make sure that we are able to withdraw at $80k prior to our starting to withdraw at $59k... each of us are likely to engage in slightly differing calculations in terms of figuring out the details of our various income flows and how much cushion we believe that we need to have in order to feel satisfied that we have enough or more than enough.


You are contradicting yourself a bit IceLincoln... and you seem to be overly relying on some arbitrary amount, such as $100k to presume that there are any needs for long term holders to take much if any profits around that price point.

If a person had accomplished most of his BTC accumulation more than 10 years ago.. so then by mid-2015, he had largely established his bitcoin stash, then surely he might have average cost per BTC that might be anywhere between $50 and $1k, depending upon when he started to accumulate.. .. and let's say that maybe the guy did not feel comfortable selling any BTC during the 2017 price run, yet there might not have had been any reason for him to not create some kind of a selling plan for the 2021 price run and other points since then, and there is no reason for the guy to get caught upon $100k as if it were some kind of a magical point to sell much if any BTC.. especially since there is no real reason that a longer term holder would necessarily conclude that $100k was going to be the end of the price run, even though sure, maybe he shaved off some sales within that price range.. just as maybe he had been selling small amounts based on prices and also maybe based on the passage of time.

I will agree to recognize that there have been some claims that some longer term holders have been selling some of their coins around $100k, and that is part of the explanation to suggest that various financialized products and/or third-party custodians have the coins that they claim to have, and to attempt to explain why the BTC price is not going up more than it has been doing, even when so many large players seem to be engaging in activities to accumulate and hoard bitcoin.


I doubt $100k was a good selling point, and there seems to be a bit of fantasizing regarding good practices and even presuming that it is good to engage in large sales of bitcoin with expectations to buy back cheaper.. .rather than perhaps maybe some guys might have had accumulated 50 bitcoin prior to 2015 (maybe around $1k per coin or even cheaper costs) and sure maybe at various points between $30k and $100k the guy might have had sold 5-10 bitcoin and we are at $100k (and more) and the more prudent guy who recognizes the value of bitcoin may well still have 80% or more of his stash...and the dumb twats sold more than 50% of their stash... and are regretting that they don't have enough coins.. because they failed and/or refused to appreciate the value of mostly erroring on the side of holding and selling very little.. .and maybe even the smarter ones still have 90% or more of their original stash.. and they still have been able to profit without getting too obsessed with selling too many coins too soon.. merely because their BTC stash happens to be in profits..