Prediction markets are just crowd-sourced opinion polls, aren't they? Even the name "prediction market" is just a marketing tactic for the gullible. That is how I see things right now. I mean, where does the prediction part come in? It is just a public voting system.
Or maybe I do not understand prediction markets like Polymarket? Or maybe I am just misunderstanding the entire concept?
If anyone has any insights, feel free to explain it to me.
Yes, you got it all completely wrong. These are not polls. The opinions of people who don't put their money on the table are worthless, but the opinions of people who are responsible for their thoughts with money are interesting. I heard that the polymarket is on average more accurate than the opinions of "experts", voting results, etc. However, I cannot provide an exact link to this information. But I believe this 100% because I once worked in auctions and in practice I understood that the opinions of people without money/outside the market are worth nothing.
That is not accurate. They are still basically guessing.
Although maybe they do more research than someone who is given a free vote and has nothing to lose, I do not think the educated guess of a gambler is more trustworthy than that of someone who is not putting his/her money on the line. I do not see a reason why a gambler would be more financially responsible than someone who does not have money in jeopardy? The gambler could just be guessing as well.
The people voting obviously have an interest and an opinion, so they are not just randomly voting without a reason. And the more people vote, the more accurate the prediction becomes. Regardless of whether they have money riding on it or not.