Post
Topic
Board Gambling discussion
Merits 2 from 2 users
Topic OP
Sports bookies versus predictions market
by
stompix
on 27/06/2025, 15:38:54 UTC
⭐ Merited by alani123 (1) ,Charles-Tim (1)
Starting from the topic here I saw a lot of comments, a lot of opinions, but I don't know how magically almost everyone missed the point about those true differences
So let's go and create a bit of an info topic about it

Assumptions
1) Bookies are about sports, prediction markets are about other events
FALSE

Bookies can have politics
https://www.betfair.com/sport/politics
and .......Men's Hot Dog Eating Contest
https://www.betfair.com/sport/special-bets/nathans-hot-dog-eating-contest/11973705

Polymarket has also sports
https://polymarket.com/sports/live

2) Bookies are centralized entities, polymarket is decentralized
Quite false

Yeah, all sports bookies are centralized, but Polymarket is run by a US company, running on a centralized platform, and it has people in charge of results, which might end in situations like this https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-720742-20250326
So no, Polymarket is quasi-decentralized, more in branding than reality!

2) Predictions market run on blockchain, they use only crypto are non-custodial
FALSE

While Polymarket only uses crypto, Predictit uses only fiat and Kalshi simply accepts crypto as deposits.
Neither Kalshi nor Predictit have any blockchain running!

Now, back to the main differences in actual play

  • With sports bookies, you bet against the odds the bookie gives you, it's either a yes or no on that bet.
    With a prediction market, you bet against other users, it's a market, so you buy options at one price and your bet is essentially on people trading against you, without digging deeper and making it easier to understand, buy cheap, sell at a higher price!
  • There is a slight resemblence in this and cashing-out, meanign that if you bought "yes" at 4 cents and now it's 8 cents it would be quite the same as cashing out on a bet you took at 6x when your team is leading by 2-0 and the odds have dropped to 1.5 or something. But that's as much as it can go!
  • Another difference in the style of gambling/trading is that you can set your bets, you can't have a waiting bet if, for example, in Botafogo vs Plameira you think Botafogo is too low at 3.5 and you would want to place it only at 5x, you can't do that with a sport bookie, but in a markt exchange you can place your bid wall at 20 cents per dollar, it might never get filled but it's an option you have.
  • Another major difference, you will not have parlays on a prediction market, so no combining two bets, unlike with a sports bookie.
  • Unlike bookies, with most predictions, market settlements are being made according to sources, which poses a real problem, like this bet:
    https://polymarket.com/event/fordow-nuclear-facility-destroyed-before-july
    Good luck reaching a result that will be accepted by everyone!


Finally, do traditional bookies have something like this?
Yes, they have, it's called an exchange, offered by bookies like Betfair or Matchbook, which run quite on the same principle as a prediction market!


I hope I covered the main differences with this, if I missed something, reply and I will add it!