Post
Topic
Board Gambling discussion
Re: The Fallacy Of The Maturity Of Chances
by
tiCeR
on 30/06/2025, 23:37:49 UTC
The Fallacy of the maturity of chances is a common mistake among gamblers.

Some gamblers always think past events affects future outcomes.
For example, if a coin is lands heads up several times, some people
Think it's more likely to land tails up next.

But each coin flip is independent and the probability of heads or tails is always 50/50

That's correct if every event is considered a single event and there are indeed people falling for that all the time. It's classic in coin flips, but also in dice games or roulette when some players exclude a number from the next round because it was hit last round. That is why these strategies are dangerous when players double their stakes every round they lost. It can have devastating consequences and destroy the entire bankroll. It is just wrong to believe that it is not possible for tails to hit like 15 consecutive times. It can and will happen and is only a question of time. Of course it is unlucky if it happens because the probability to hit tails 15 consecutive times is very low, but it is never 0. And as long as the probability for something to occur is not 0, it maybe your unlucky moment any time.