Post
Topic
Board Gambling discussion
Re: The Fallacy Of The Maturity Of Chances
by
viljy
on 01/07/2025, 04:30:16 UTC
The Fallacy of the maturity of chances is a common mistake among gamblers.

Some gamblers always think past events affects future outcomes.
For example, if a coin is lands heads up several times, some people
Think it's more likely to land tails up next.

But each coin flip is independent and the probability of heads or tails is always 50/50

I even suspect why such a misconception arises. Intuitively, it seems that an eagle drop, say, ten times in a row, is unlikely. Actually, not at all. It is unlikely to throw ten eagles on ten coins at the same time, since the probability of such a roll is 1/210.

That is, the number and the count are confused in the human mind. By the way, the example with ten coins shows how slots work, and it is clear that the number of spins is not related to the number of options. In other words, this is pure luck, since neither the winning outcome nor the loss can "accumulate."