Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
Samson Mow must be the biggest bull cunt out there with $1 million BTC in Q4.
Even more ridiculous than that other cunt Plan B $400,000.
Even more ridiculous than that other cunt Plan B $400,000.
I have a hard time criticizing guys for being overly bullish, even though I do understand that some normies can end up being damaged through their overly reliance on such overly bullish claims - yet at the same time, there might be some projection that is not even Mow's exact words since even if he might not continuously use qualifiers, there may be implied qualifiers..
Last cycle, right around the top, I proclaimed that the odds were slightly higher for more UP rather than down, meaning even as of December 16, 2021, which was within weeks of the top, I had pretty much assigned 45% odds for down and 55% odds for UP, and also I had assigned something like 2%-ish odds for $1 million or higher.. which likely means that I would assign greater that 1% odds to $1million or higher for this cycle.. and yeah, I have not honed in on my exact numbers, yet i doubt that they would be even close to as high as Mow's numbers..
Even though I ended up being quite wrong in late 2021, since t$69k ended up being the top, and my numbers seem a bit whimsical after the fact, no one really wanted to take the other side of my numbers, and really I did not see anyone attempting to assign any granularity to their proposed BTC price direction proclamations... even though Phil was sure as fuck we were going above $70k.. and he beat that one to death, even though it might not have actually been bettable, even though he ended up bing wrong with his seemingly high level of proclamations.
I am starting to wonder if Mow considers the odds for $1 million before the end of 2025 to be greater than 50%, since that would make it bettable. and I have not heard about him entering into any bets on the topic.
I am currently thinking less than 10% for greater than $1 million for this cycle, and I sometimes get the sense that I have been overly beaten if I am even pondering 5%-ish odds for greater than $1 million for this cycle and I admit that might be overly bearish.. but 5% is still quite a bit higher than a lot of folks would assign for greater than $1 million bitcoin for this cycle and it is really ONLY a 9x.. so that is not really that grandeur when it comes to bitcoin.... yet, maybe I should say that even if I were to be considering odds of greater than 10% for our touching upon $1 million this cycle, the that still seems like that there is enough room to bet against someone who seems to be suggesting greater than 50/50 odds for $1 million before the end of 2025. . Let's say, if I were feeling really bullish, then I might be going as high as 10% or maybe even 15% for my acceptance that we could hit $1million in this cycle or even by the end of 2025, yet that also seems bettable for me to take the other side of a Mow bet, especially if he might just be going slightly higher than 50/50 odds on his side of the bet. It is funny that ther3e is no outstanding bet given how frequently I hear Mow talking about $1million bitcoin, and he seemed to have have said it several times already for earlier timelines, so he is already used to being wrong.. but perhaps still hoping that sooner or later, he will be correct and he will be able to say "I told you so... .I just didn't know when, exactly," which seems like almost a fair position for him to take.
By the way, we also know that it does not really take that much money to move the bitcoin market, so it is not like we need $18 trillion to come into bitcoin in order for bitcoin to move up in its market cap from $2 trillion (currently) to right around $20 trillion, which is what it would be at right around $1 million per coin.
I know they blocked everything from crypto's before not allowing transfers incoming from exchanges etc
Its the classic first they laugh/ignore you, now they join you situation.
Your link is behind a pay wall Its the classic first they laugh/ignore you, now they join you situation.
It sounds like they only want to earn from Bitcoin buyers, so I'm curious if they're still not allowing transfers from exchanges. Large corporations taking control of people's private keys and selling them "an account" isn't really the kind of adoption I was hoping for.
Banks have no morals, they do anything to earn more money. Remember the massive fines for facilitating money laundering (not related to crypto)? They only started checking more because they got fined.
In addition, as you say, they are the biggest money launderers in the world, and on the other hand, I believe that banks are among the biggest sponsors of attacks on Bitcoin, whether it is that BTC mining causes climate change, or that it consumes too much electricity, so we will remain in the dark - and of course only criminals, terrorists and generally those who want to hide something work with BTC.
When they didn't manage to destroy the whole thing or marginalize it enough to slowly disappear in the wasteland of the internet, they decided on another tactic. The goal is obviously to profit from BTC as much as possible, while at the same time moving as many people away from the idea that it is the currency they should use.
Is it realistic to speculate that by the end of this decade maybe even 50% of all BTC will be in the possession of various ETFs, individuals like Saylor and others like him and maybe even central banks? Someone may not see too much of a problem in this, but since BTC spot ETFs were approved in the US, large companies like BlackRock have become very interested in BTC mining companies in which they have already acquired significant stakes.
I'm just curious if all this is purely for profit, or if there's an idea behind it to try to centralize Bitcoin to some extent. It should not be forgotten that BlackRock once announced that in the case of a hard fork, they reserve the right to follow the chain they consider better, not necessarily the one chosen by the majority of the community.
Even though you make a lot of good points Lucius, I consider you to be overly bearish and hopefully you are not overly hedging against bitcoin based on your views that the seem to presume that status quo institutions have as much power as you are making them out to have. I believe that they are going to try many of the things that you suggest, and if they are not able to do such things overtly, they will strive to do them covertly. I just doubt that they are going to have as much success as you seem to be presuming them to have a bit of a cake-walk with bitcoin, when the fact of the matter is that they going to have to learn some much better ways to fuck people over, since I am going to suggest that from time to time, there are going to be enough folks holding their private keys and transacting privately that will help to bring some honesty, even though the BIG player crooks will continue to crook in their various ways.
~snip~
I don't think I'm bearish at all, I'm just trying to see the bigger picture based on what's happening when it comes to Bitcoin. I've been with BTC for 10+ years and have invested a lot of time and money in it, I only sell as much as I need at any given time, but let's say I have enough BTC to retire today, although I prefer BTC far more than anything else and I don't think I'll ever sell all or most of it.
What I wrote is perhaps my reaction to what I mostly read on the forum, which is that most people believe that companies like BlackRock or Fidelity or maybe Strategy are some kind of leaders of the crypto revolution (I know you don't like that word), and that without them Bitcoin wouldn't be where it is now.
It's actually paradoxical to me that the system that resulted in us having BTC today is the main driving force behind it (at least that's what various experts claim). Yes, of course there will always be people who will practice storage in non-custodial wallets and strive for privacy, but even today this is a minority that is always under scrutiny.
As it says in my profile (currently), dum spiro, spero - and they say hope dies last.