By trying to be right, you're being silly. Your craps simulation is correct for that specific game, but it doesn't model prefix pruning. With prefixes, we abort at the first false positive without betting on future events. The probability of success is 63.2%, as my simulations demonstrate. You still fail to distinguish between sequential processes with aborts (prefixes) and conditional bets (your dice).

You inadvertently demonstrate that when you change the rules, the probability changes.

This validates my claim that "Every stopping criterion changes the probability of success."

Prefix pruning: 63.2%

Random stopping: 50%

Your craps bet: 48.2%

When you want to discuss the actual method instead of incorrect analogies, I'll be here.

It's as simple as that, otherwise it simply wouldn't be worth debating with you.