What bear season? I mean with what's happened since the bitcoin ETF was approved, I don't see bitcoin following the market cycle anymore. Given the involvement of governments and institutions, bitcoin seem to fluctuate based on supply and demand, and is more influenced by macro factors, rather than based on halvings or cycles. So it cannot be said bear season is coming.
Unless buyers don't want profits anymore they'll always be bear seasons. All the factors you mentioned including the government consists of users who wants to make money via Bitcoin. Whenever people start taking profits or withdrawing against loss the market will go bearish.