I am finding these various discussions of percentages to be confusing, and so yeah, a guy who might have various investments, might be first coming to bitcoin and trying to determine how much to put into bitcoin, so an initial starting point may be to aim towards 5% to 25% of his total investment portfolio to be allocated to bitcoin, yet depending on the size of his budget it could take him several  months or even longer than a year to reallocated and reach his target level in bitcoin.. and he can also reconsider his bitcoin allocation at various times along the way as he is investing into bitcoin, he is also hopefully learning about bitcoin and considering his allocation and considering the extent to which he might reallocate or let his bitcoin investment ride once it is established and even continuing to add to it once established.  Of course, there could be ways that guys also have lump sum amounts that are available too that could help them to reach their target levels of investment into bitcoin faster.. and also as their income continues to come in, they continue to invest in bitcoin and determine the extent to invest into bitcoin and/or any other investments that they might have.  For sure the more kinds of assets a person has then, they also might well have targets within each kind of investment in terms of what levels they want to reach within the investment or within that investment relative to their other investments.. which they also might have considerations of how much to allocate to bitcoin, properties, stocks, bonds, commodities, perhaps other businesses, cash/cash equivalents.

There surely are folks who also come to bitcoin without having any other investments, so their first investment might be bitcoin, so they would build up their bitcoin and balance their bitcoin with their cashflow management, and roughly speaking even a newbie to bitcoin could consider allocating 5% to 25% of his income into bitcoin, yet he still would have to be investing into bitcoin from his discretionary income (meaning the amount that is left after accounting for expenses).  So guys can stay invested into bitcoin and cash (emergency funds/reserve funds) and perhaps as his bitcoin investment grows to reach more than a year of his expenses or even more, he might start to consider at various times to start to diversify, at least he might have senses that he wants to have some of his back up funds to be working rather than having 4 months or more of his funds in cash and not working, so if he wants to accumulate more back up funds, then he might want some of theme to be working funds... so maybe another target that he has with his bitcoin is to get it to be 10x or more or the size of his expected annual expenses, and if he is measuring the value of his BTC from the 200-WMA, it could take a while to reach 4-10 years or longer.. or even 20-30 years to reach such targets, even in spite of how much value he put into bitcoin and also how much BTC had appreciated in value during his investment time, whether measuring from the 200-WMA or spot prices or a combination of such measurements.

The extent to which anyone chooses to allocate into shitcoins and/or even trading with their bitcoin should be low, yet surely some folks cannot resist gambling and/or they have interests and distractions and they think that they are learning about other things when they are investing into shitcoins or trading with their bitcoin, so I frequently like to suggest that that guys do not do that, but if they cannot resist and they come to the conclusion that they want to do it, then they should at least limit their budget to no more than 10% the size of their bitcoin investment.. without cheating and continuing to add to their shitcoins and/or their trading when they are losing money from those.  So surely every month if guys are buying bitcoin and/or even from time to time lump sum buying into bitcoin, they may well be considering adding to their shitcoin and/or trading accounts at a similar rate of 10% into shitcoin and/or trading accounts and 90% allocated into bitcoin... so if they have an investment budget of $100 per month, then at least 90% ($90) goes into their bitcoin and perhaps no more than 10% ($10) goes into shitcoin and/or trading accounts... and these are building over time and appreciating/depreciating and perhaps the trading and shitcoin accounts have changes in position going on and maybe in the bitcoin accounts there is value getting moved from account to account from time to time.

In the end, guys figure out their own ways of dealing with their various accounts that hopefully comes from experience, learning and from time to time tweaking of their systems and even learning from their own finances and/or psychology the extent to which any changes in their own situation or their 9 individual factors might affect how they are dealing with their various investments (hopefully with a lot of priority with bitcoin) and their cashflow management systems and practices (that includes the initial building of back up funds and maintaining them within individual purposes and acceptable balances).


If a person has reached overaccumulation stage, then likely he has a lot of options, and there are not necessarily any requirements regarding how he spends his overaccumulated amount, and he may not even need to replace any of it once he spends it.

Surely guys might choose to have other investments or even trade from their overaccumulated amounts, yet there also could be ways in which spending from the overaccumulated amount never causes the person to go below overaccumulation status, so long as he continues to spend at a rate that is lower than the amount that the value of the BTC holdings is appreciating.. So of course, the greater the cushion of overaccumulation, then the less worry that the guy has that he would fall into overaccumulation status.

I frequently like to use the example of the guy who might have had been living off of a $30k per year salary, yet maybe he wants to build up his bitcoin stash so that he has an ability to spend up to $80k per year.. so [ur=https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy?U2FsdGVkX1/3dEHD0997ik7bXXag3wv+jIlqPBGSwwuRYoo6wHqEOktMiVXENevFfdq6UpcTpyhnGE7NEdsM4w==l]right now in order to have the ability to withdraw at $80k per year, he would need a minimum of 16.189 BTC[/url], yet if he has extra BTC, such as 22.2 BTC, then he would have more confidence that he could spend from the overaccumulated amount of 6 BTC, and as he is spending, his threshold level for the $80k per year income will continue to go down, even if he might calculate a cost of living or a dollar debasement of 7% per year... so once he starts to withdrawal perhaps at $80k per year, he could continue to increase his withdrawal amount in dollars by 7% each year (such as $85.6k year 2, $91.6k year 3, $98k year 4, $104.86k year 5, etc etc etc).. and continue to spend within his overaccumulation status and without a fear of depleting his BTC at a faster rate than it is increasing in value.. and yeah, if he screws it up and calculates wrong, then that is his responsibility to figure out the details and make sure that he is not overly depleting his BTC amount so that it no longer would be sustainable at the rate that he had calculated it to be.

We can look back and see historically that it took more bitcoin to have a $80k per year withdrawal rate, and that it was more than feasible to withdraw $80k per year in sustainable ways, and perhaps even greater comfort to be able to accomplish a withdrawal rate of at least $80k per year when the guy the guy had a BTC aount that exceeded minimum threshold amounts for his target withdrawal rate and he spent within the overaccumulated amounts.  The problems come when guys want to spend above their overaccumulated amounts and/or they do not know how to calculate their own levels of what is overaccumulation for them.

If we look at $80k as a target level for each of the previous years (without necessarily accounting specifically for the debasement of the dollar/inflation) we still should be able to realize that there have been formulas to be able to achieve an $80k per year withdrawal rate as long as we had at least the threshold amount of BTC and that we stayed spending within the overaccumulated amount even accounting for something like a 7% per year debasement/inflation rate.

Income of $80k per year, threshold quantity of BTC needed to be able to accomplish such.. using the 200-WMA.

July 1, 2019  =  205 BTC  (200-WMA value - $3,902)

July 1, 2020  =  131.3 BTC (200-WMA value - $6,107)

July 1, 2021  =  59.4 BTC (200-WMA value - $13,469)

July 1, 2022  =  35.56 BTC (200-WMA value - $22,497)

July 1, 2023  =  29.96 BTC (200-WMA value - $26,702)

July 1, 2024  =  22 BTC (200-WMA value - $36,364)

July 1, 2025  =  16.25 BTC (200-WMA value - $49,231)

July 1, 2026  =   (probably fewer than 14 BTC)  (200-WMA value - likely greater than $57,150)  and of course, we cannot really know BTC price dynamics with any level of assurity or preciseness whether we are talking about a year from now or even several years down the road, since there are even chances that by July 1, 2026 (merely a year from now), it could take less than 10 BTC to be able to reach an adequate BTC accumulation threshold to be able to be assured of being able to sustainably withdraw $80k per year which would need to have a 200-WMA value of greater than $80k, and yeah, we know that historically bitcoin has continued to outperform other assets .. but bitcoin is not guaranteed to continue to outperform other assets, yet we can still choose our position size and our level of aggressiveness in the accumulation of bitcoin and the holding of bitcoin while trying to be smart about our assessment of our individual factors.

We can see that even with a withdrawal rate of $80k per year that I am using for the above examples, we would be able to increase our dollar withdrawal rate by 7% (probably even more) and still the value of the BTC would be growing faster than our withdrawal rate (especially if we are using the 200-WMA to value or stash and to make sure that we are not withdrawing beyond a sustainable rate), which is one of the advantages for each of us to get to a status in which we are actually  above our overaccumulation status and then maintaining our budget in a way that we are never falling out of our overaccumualtion status, which each of needs to be responsible to figure out our actual calculations for our own situation so that we do not screw up that which seems an otherwise great deal and a great asset as long as we know how to reasonably manage it.

There has likely been no asset like bitcoin that has been so widely available to the masses and even poor people can directly advantage by it, so long as they either have a discretionary income or they can figure out how to get a discretionary income so that they are able to both invest into bitcoin and also to make sure that they manage their holdings and do not lose their holdings.... while they are building it up to a level that is their own target level whether they are able to reach an overaccumulation level or some other point in which at some point they are able to start to use their bitcoin, perhaps 4-10 years or longer to the extent that they plan to use their BTC themselves or optionally to pass their BTC onto their heirs (to the extent that passing BTC onto heirs is something that they either want to do or to merely have as a kind of back up plan in case they die earlier than expected/wanted).  


I think that I agree with what you are saying overall Gost ms, even though you say it in a bit of a strange way that almost makes it ambiguous what you are saying and your attempt to proclaim strict rules also becomes problematic, even though there are likely better practices that can be outlined and put into practice and individualized.

I think that the general idea is to ongoingly build your investment over many years, for 4-10 years or longer, and surely anyone who is buying relatively small amounts of BTC (such as ONLY less than 10% of their income), it is likely going to take them longer and longer to get to a point in which it might start to make sense to transition from accumulation status into maintenance status and then perhaps even later to transition into some kind of a sustainable withdrawal status.

Surely a person who is able to accumulate bitcoin at a more aggressive rate or at least at a rate that is a higher percentage of their income, then they are likely going to make progress faster towards reaching some form of overaccumulation status, yet at the same time, people should ONLY be as aggressive as they are able to be within their own financial parameters, since it would not be good for anyone to be either investing beyond their discretionary income or to be investing so high within their discretionary income that they end up overly depriving themselves in their lives or otherwise contributing to their own psychological problems due to their overly stressing about their bitcoin investment.. so even poor people might be greatly motivated to attempt to have bitcoin to help them to get out of their poverty status, they still need to figure out some level of reasonable balance so that they are not overly investing even from within their own psychological tolerance, even if they may well be staying within their financial tolerance.

Another point that you might have had made better Gost ms is your suggestion that bitcoin remains a long term play so that none of us should be allowing short term profits distract us in regards to our likely need to continue to accumulate bitcoin, and perhaps to appreciate the advantages that we have in regards to having some of our earlier bitcoin accumulations to be greatly in profits, yet at the same time, we likely need to stay focused on the long term and the ongoing building of our bitcoin holdings, even if some of our holdings are greatly in profits... so we have to attempt to budget for these kinds of matters of dealing with our being in profits and to prepare ourselves financially and psychologically to deal with such matters and not to let our profit levels to take away from our likely ongoing need to continue to accumulate bitcoin through buying, and that selling does not tend to be a good way of dealing with bitcoin - especially if we are able to really reflect on our status and to recognize/appreciate that we are still in our accumulation status, even if we might have a decent amount of profits building up.

It can be quite a challenge for some folks to continue to accumulate bitcoin when they are perceiving their holdings to be so greatly in profits and they are tempted to either sell or to discontinue accumulating, even though it could well be that the better course of action is to continue to accumulate.. yet at the same time, the answer about what to do is not necessarily black and white and each person has to figure out their own best course of action and hopefully for their own good they do not end up screwing up, even though surely we have a lot f historical examples of normies screwing up in their bitcoin investment by selling too much too soon or failing/refusing to continue to accumulate through ongoing buying until they really get to an overaccumulation status rather than their mistake perception of their being in overaccumulation status when that was not really the case in reality they were not yet in overaccumulation status, yet each person is obligated to either make his own assessment of his status or to seek help from others if he believes he is not able to figure out these matters for himself..  

Alternatively we are also vulnerable to even not knowing what we do not know or even erroneously concluding that we know more than we know. .so we have to be careful of those kinds of vulnerabilities, too.


It is not necessarily easily to determine when diversification might start to seem to be justifiable, since there are some guys who start with bitcoin and they are already invested in various other assets, so I doubt that any of us would be suggesting that they have to divest from their other assets and go straight into holding ONLY bitcoin and cash.. that might not make any sense.

It also may well not make any sense for a person without any investments (perhaps other than cash) to feel some need to invest into anything other than bitcoin (and building his cashflow management) over his first several months or even his first several years into bitcoin investing... yet there still could be questions regarding levels of discretionary income and/or cash that a person might have, and some guys might have a lot of cash /value that they are able to invest into bitcoin from the start, yet even having a lot of cash does not necessarily justify investing into anything other than bitcoin in the beginning, yet there can still be questions regarding when it may well start to make sense to have other than bitcoin and cash, which truly I have personally suggested that building a bitcoin investment up to a year of expenses and perhaps having 4-6 months of cash in various back up funds might start to justify desires to keep more money in cash, but to have that money working rather than being in cash, so being at such a status may well start to justify diversifying beyond bitcoin and cash.. even if some of the other investment (the non-bitcoin investments such as properties, stocks, bonds, commodities, business matters, cash equivalents) might start to seem as more sophisticated ways of holding variations on cash...

so then if a guy is measuring his overall investment portfolio and he is seeing the bitcoin portion start out in the 5% to 25% territory of his annual income, and then it becomes greater than a whole year, and then maybe he starts to feel uncomfortable to have bitcoin in 75% or more, or even 90% or more of his investments are in bitcoin, so he might start to want to hold other than bitcoin and cash.. and he does not need to necessarily get to overaccumulation status in order to start to consider some need to diversify beyond bitcoin and cash... and surely some of us consider overaccumulation to be at least 10x the annual withdrawal rate that you would like to sustain measured based on the 200-WMA.. so then it could take quite a while to get to such overaccumulation status, and diversification might even start to make sense at less than 1 year's withdrawal rate value being held in bitcoin. Many folks are already going to be having stresses when their BTC is 15% to 25% of their investment portfolio, and if we might be suggesting that guys reach overaccumulation status before they start to even consider diversifying beyond cahs and bitcoin, then that may well constitute an investment portfolio that is greater than 95% in bitcoin, which truly seems to be a status that many guys are going to have difficulty in keeping... since it seems both extreme financially but also stressful psychologically, especially during downward volatile times.


Yep.. seemingly, we have very low levels of adoption of bitcoin, and likely poor people would be disproportionately advantaged by attempting to accumulate bitcoin, even though poor people have more challenges in regards to their being able to generate higher levels of discretionary income.... yet surely there is an irony in regards to rich people being able to accumulate bitcoin more easily than poor people even though poor people are likely going to advantage more from getting themselves involved in bitcoin in what is likely an ongoing and continued transfer of wealth from the no coiners to the coiners.. and such wealth transfer has already been quite extreme, even though not easy to see when we are in the process of it, and surely the more direct way for anyone to benefit from such ongoing wealth transfer is to directly own coins.. even though many folks will also likely indirectly benefit from the ongoing world-wide adoption of bitcoin...even though if possible directly benefitting would likely be a preferred course .. for any who are willing to act rather than merely watch the ongoing wealth transfer process.