Chelsea vs PSG finals would not be a shocker. PSG and Real Madrid game will be the real questionable one, Real Madrid has been quite decent with Xabi and there aren't that many missing players. now their new defender is red carded so they are going to face that issue once again, and their defense was the issue all season long and could be the issue once again.
But their offense seems on top and still great, so PSG defense will have some trouble. PSG offense will need to score a lot to make sure that Real scoring doesn't change it. I do hope that it becomes a very fun game and we could definitely consider this would be the "real" final. Because whoever wins, has a higher chance of beating Chelsea at the final game.
Real Madrid’s match against PSG will not be an easy one. It's a match that is really hard to predict because both teams are currently doing well. With that, I feel that both teams have equal chances of winning.So the final could be Chelsea vs. Real Madrid or PSG vs Chelsea, and it would not be a shock to see any of these teams in the final.
If it had recently before Xabi Alonso taking over as coach, I might say that PSG will be the favourite to win. But at this point, with the performances I’ve seen from Real Madrid under Xabi, I don’t have the confidence that PSG has a higher chance of winning the match but let’s see what will happen.And as you mentioned, based on PSG red cards against Bayern Munich, it's very possible that their defensive line may not be that strong and these players will be absents.