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If Fluminense had not eliminated Inter and Al Hilal, I would have easily said Chelsea would have won, but we are at such a level that both teams seem to have the same chance right now. The Brazilian team represents South America and they are playing with extra motivation in the Club World Cup. I believe they can eliminate Chelsea as well. I don't know who will win, but both teams seem to have an equal chance of advancing to the next round and the final. It looks like it will be a 50-50 match.
The chances of both teams may be the same, but the probabilities of both teams should be different. Chelsea is considered superior to Fluminense based on the depth of their squad, while Fluminense has been in their best form in the last few matches. Fluminense managed to complete their mission and reach the semifinals, but because their squad depth is different from Chelsea, Chelsea will be considered the favorite based on the probability of winning.
Chelsea should be able to win this semi-final and make it to the final, but we know that Fluminense have given their best so far. Fluminense are a team that can threaten Chelsea to fail to reach the Club World Cup final, but I agree that Chelsea are more likely to be expected. Chelsea's performance is not bad, so far only losing to Flamengo 3-1 in the group stage.