What are the odds though?  Even if we take our current $112,040 as a potential "double top," the odds for down from here (or at least no further up) must be less than 35%...

Even if we might say $112,040 to $120k as the top, that still might largely be noise.. so maybe the odds would not change very much by expanding the "top" range a bit.

I know that even 35% comes off as a big number, and we always know that we are not guaranteed up, yet when we are investing in bitcoin (or even trading) there's gotta be some appreciation of the various up numbers as I did in my 2021 - outline of price points, the possibility of higher price points being reached becomes lower and lower as we consider the height of the number being higher, yet at the same time, the amount of payoff for any of the higher numbers being reached (not that I am advocating trading) becomes quite stupendous, which I suppose is merely just attempting to describe the dynamic of an asymmetric bet.


Surely we can characterize history however we like, but feeling fake does not capture my sense of our 2022 price drop, even surely I think that I understand what you are saying terms of expectations for a higher top... but even your proclamation about greater than $69k not being possible (or probable) comes off as just a Monday morning quarter-backing kind of assertion, and surely there was a lot of shenanigans going on behind the scenes in 2021, yet it was not inevitable that it had to end up going down rather than up even though surely some of the down and the implosion of the Terra Luna matter seemed to contribute to a cascading of other ways that bitcoin was being rehypothicated that ended up screwing a lot of folks while at the same time contributing to downity.

$58k would be quite depressing, yet I am personally considering that worse case scenarios in the event of a $125k top as you hypothesize, then we would never see below $65k again, and even that seems like a longshot of negative scenarios...and even going back to below $75k in any scenario seems bettable if you would be willing to take the other side of such a bet.

By the way, if you have ONLY been in bitcoin since around the time of your forum registration date, I have a hard time imagining that you could have had accumulated enough bitcoin yet.. and even my imagining accumulating bitcoin in the last 2.5 years is quite a difficult time since the price has ONLY gone up and up and up and anyone trying to accumulate would have had been much better off to attempt to front load rather than strategizing about price drops that largely ended up not happening very much in the past 2.5-ish years.


You are probably more correct than me in terms of odds.  I just get nervous presuming up, even though so many factors seem to ongoingly be putting uppity pressures on the corn price.


This statement contradicts your earlier statement, which means you are considering bitcoin to be potentially toppy.

The other explanation for this kind of statement is that sometimes any of us can assess that we have enough or more than enough, so even if they price goes up, we already have enough, so why buy more, even if we think that the price is going up.

In that sense, there is nothing wrong with living in regards to our various cashflows, especially 9if we might mostly already have enough of dee cornz, whether that be 20 BTC or some other quantity.


Other places?  I am not sure if any of "us" care about these supposed "other places."


A self-proclaimed expert.     

You must be really rich for having had "nailed the top" not only once but three times.. Wow!!

---

Now that we have $112,748 $112,766 (it keeps changing) as our new ATH, as I type this, some of my previous observed price points might no longer be applicable to my price-prediction related arguments.