Honestly, $200K this year looks unlikely — too many factors just aren’t clicking.
With the economic and geopolitical developments around the world, and how the market depends on news for growth. I tend to agree with your point that the $200k goal is very difficult to achieve. But as we all know, anything can happen and especially with bitcoin, it always surprises us. So, it is good to be cautious, but there is no need to be too pessimistic because the future is unpredictable and anything is possible.
But what's really interesting now is whether there'll be an altcoin rotation. Because yeah, watching alts bleed while waiting for that move… it hurts. 
It seems like you are investing more in altcoins than bitcoin, right? If so, you need to know one thing, altcoins only grow when bitcoin grows. If you are not bullish on bitcoin, don't expect altcoins to grow.